I HAD BEEN making the rounds of the Sacrifice Poles the day we heard my brother had escaped. I already knew something was going to happen; the Factory told me. At the north end of the island, near the tumbled remains of the slip where the handle of the rusty winch still creaks in an easterly wind, I had two Poles on the far face of the last dune. One of the Poles held a rat head with two dragonflies, the other a seagull and two mice. I was just sticking one of the mouse heads back on whe
作者: 乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)2008年的崩溃风潮(上)——反思2008的崩溃风潮﹙一﹚ 2008年改变了世界。本报获授权,独家刊发国际著名投资人索罗斯最新反思的中文版 自2007年8月以来,金融体系就已经步入危机,但是大众几乎没有注意到,并且商业运转如常,只有一些例外。所有这一切在2008年9月15日以后的几周中改变了 保尔森要负责任,他是个地地道道的市场原教旨主义者,相信把市场卷入麻烦的同样方法和工具也能用于使市场摆脱麻烦,市场出问题的时候他没有备用计划;伯南克来自学术界,在超级泡沫发生时毫无准备,不幸的是,他的学习过程开始太晚,又总落在事情的进展之后。局势就是这样失控的...
当代女性如何在商界成功:女总裁告诉你 作者:艾米·亨利 序 言 自从艾米?亨利与我在电视真人秀节目《学徒》(美国最有影响的真人秀节目。——译注)中一起工作过之后,她的生活发生了巨大的改变。在参加《学徒》节目的面试之前,她已在高科技行业有过非常成功的职业生涯。那次面试是为了抓住一个影响终生的机遇——一个在特朗普集团直接为我工作、担任举足轻重的角色的机遇。 在《学徒》的真人秀中,我一直惊异地观察着她惊人的不败纪录——十连胜。她在哪个团队,哪个团队必胜。是艾米的领导才能,团队精神,积极的态度,还是她的职业道德在起作用?我认为这是许多特质的综合结果,那些特质显示了她强有力的商业头脑。她比其他女性参赛者更充分地展示了其智慧,因而成为在董事会会议室面对我的四位决赛选手之一。在《学徒》真人秀节目中,我一直称艾米是团队里“最有价值的球员”,因为每次我重组团队的时候,她总是第一轮...
二、 证券市场无所谓规律、模式。我们虚构的无数规律、模式,无非只是我们拒绝承认自己对于这个复杂世界的无知的表现而已。任何一个时刻我们所面对的市场现实,在历史上都从来不曾出现过,在将来也永远不再会有。构成“此刻”、“当下”之市场现实的万千因素,永远变动不居。洞察市场的历史轨迹固然重要,因为总有大量的信息和知识沉淀储存于其中,然而,若以此而寻求所谓的模式抑或规律,却是缘木求鱼,刻舟求剑。采用各种最先进的数学统计技术,来寻找所谓的证券规律、模式,是通向破产之路的捷径之一。西方证券市场虽然已有四百年历史,然而比之无穷尽之未来,其历史上的各种模式、规律对于未来的适用性几乎为零;何况中国股市只有区区十二年!...
主讲人简介: 李建平,1954年10月出生,北京史研究会秘书长,研究员,兼任北京市哲学社会科学规划办公室副主任,主要从事北京历史文化研究。发表学术文章《北京街巷与历史风云》、《北京城市景观与古都文脉》、《帝都文化——北京旧城中轴线》、《北京的城墙与城门》等二十余篇;编撰《北京传统文化便览》、《北京百科词典社会科学卷》、《北京经济史资料》等著作。 内容简介: 一座见证了明清24位帝王成败荣辱的都城,一幅展现华夏文明的历史画卷,一 条串联起中国古代辉煌建筑的中轴线。 从北京的地图上我们可以看到一条贯穿南北的中轴线,历史上,这条长达7.8公里的城市中轴线南起永定门,北到钟鼓楼,汇集了北京古代城市建筑的精髓,见证了北京城的沧桑变迁。建筑大师梁思成这样赞美这条中轴线:“一根长达八公里,全世界最长,也是最伟大的南北中轴线穿过全城。北京独有的壮美秩序就由这条中轴的建立而...
It was hot. The shallow place where I lay atop the desert ridge was like an oven, the rocks like burning coals. Out on the flat below, where the Apaches waited, the heat waves shimmered and danced. Only the far-off mountains looked cool. When I tried to push out my tongue to touch my cracked lips it was like a dry stick in my mouth, and the dark splashes on the rock were blood ... my blood. The round thing lying yonder with a bullet hole in it was my canteen, but there might be a smidgen of w
A RED-HAIRED GIRL THE residence of Mr. Peter Pett, the well-known financier, on Riverside Drive is one of the leading eyesores of that breezy and expensive boulevard. As you pass by in your limousine, or while enjoying ten cents worth of fresh air on top of a green omnibus, it jumps out and bites at you. Architects, confronted with it, reel and throw up their hands defensively, and even the lay observer has a sense of shock. The place resembles in almost equal proportions a cathedral, a subur
《科学革命的结构》 作者:T.S.库恩著 序 下文是第一次发表我差不多十五年以来的构思。十五年前,我还是一个就要完成学位论文的理论物理学研究生。我有幸参加了一门为非自然科学家讲述物理科学的实验大学课程,这才第一次使我对科学史有所了解。完全出乎我意外的是,这种对过时的科学理论和实践的说明,竟彻底摧翻了我对科学本质及其所以能够获得特殊成就的某些基本想法。 我的这些老的想法的形成,一部分来源于以前的科学训练本身,一部分则来源于我对科学哲学的历久不衰的业余兴趣。这些想法,不管什么样的教育作用,也不管理论上怎样言之成理,却怎么也不足以说明历史研究中所呈现出来的实际情况。但它们历来都是许多科学问题讨论中的基本原则,这就需要彻底揭穿它们貌似有理的假象。这么一来,我的专业计划就完全变了,先是从物理学转到了科学史,以后又从更直接的历史问题逐步回到了同哲学有更大关系...
FOR NATALIE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Special thanks to Natalie Freer-the most genuine and giving person I know. To Stephen Reilly, my brother and my good friend and my loyal supporter, even from thousands of miles away. To Mum for her ments on the text and to Dad for his woeful title suggestions and to both of them for their love and support. And, last, thanks to everyone at Pan and Thomas Dunne Books (in particular, my editors, Cate Paterson, Pete Wolverton, and Madonna Duffy, first, for "discoverin
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By P. G. Wodehouse 1 In a day in June, at the hour when London moves abroad in quest of lunch, a young man stood at the entrance of the Bandolero Restaurant looking earnestly up Shaftesbury Avenuea large young man in excellent condition, with a pleasant, good-humoured, brown, clean-cut face. He paid no attention to the stream of humanity that flowed past him. His mouth was set and his eyes wore a serious, almost a wistful expression. He was frowning slightly. One would have said that here wa
Our specific charge in this unofficial mission has been to search the uninhabited worlds to find another source of the precious spice melange, upon which so much of the Imperium depends. We have documented the journeys of many of our Navigators and Steersmen, searching hundreds of planets. To date, however, we have had no success. The only source of melange in the Known Universe remains the desert world of Arrakis. The Guild, CHOAM, and all other dependents must continue in thrall of the Harko
既然在房地产专栏里,那我就抛开股票,专谈房地产。 先说房价(市场价值):你知道你买一套房子付出的成本和房价的关系吗?房价是一个时点数,是静态值。而你购房付出的成本却是动态的。举个简单例子加以说明:你购买房子,房价100万,首付3成,贷款70万,期限20年。当你完成此笔交易的时候,所有的都是静态的,包括你的初期贷款利率。这二十年,你能确保贷款利率不发生变动吗?在过去10年,中国的平均贷款利率是8%(已剔除硬着陆实行的高利率影响)。而我们买房的同志,初期贷款利率大都是5.04%。相差3个点,这三个点意味着什么?意味着你必须多付出30%的资金成本。换句话说,你实际上花了130万买了一套100万的房子。(说明一点,首付的是机会成本,因为基准利率上涨,存贷款利率会同时上调)。...