the.world.is.flat-第15部分

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to　the　effect　of；　〃Look；　you　bozos；　of　course　they're　a　bubble；　but　you're　all　missing　
the　point。　This　bubble　is　attracting　so　much　new　capital　to　this　Internet　industry；　
it　is　going　to　drive　innovation　faster　and　faster。〃　Gates　compared　the　Internet　to　
the　gold　rush；　the　idea　being　that　more　money　was　made　selling　Levi's；　picks；　shovels；　
and　hotel　rooms　to　the　gold　diggers　than　from　digging　up　gold　from　the　earth。　Gates　
was　right：　Booms　and　bubbles　may　be　economically　dangerous；　they　may　end　up　with　many　
people　losing　money　and　a　lot　of　companies　
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going　bankrupt。　But　they　also　often　do　drive　innovation　faster　and　faster；　and　the　
sheer　overcapacity　that　they　spur…whether　it　is　in　railroad　lines　or　automobiles…can　
create　its　own　unintended　positive　consequences。　
That　is　what　happened　with　the　Internet　stock　boom。　It　sparked　a　huge　overinvestment　
in　fiber…optic　cable　companies；　which　then　laid　massive　amounts　of　fiber…optic　cable　
on　land　and　under　the　oceans；　which　dramatically　drove　down　the　cost　of　making　a　phone　
call　or　transmitting　data　anywhere　in　the　world。　
The　first　commercial　installation　of　a　fiber…optic　system　was　in　1977；　after　which　
fiber　slowly　began　to　replace　copper　telephone　wires；　because　it　could　carry　data　
and　digitized　voices　much　farther　and　faster　in　larger　quantities。　According　to　
Howstuffworks。com；　fiber　optics　are　made　up　of　strands　of　optically　pure　glass　each　
〃as　thin　as　a　human　hair；〃　which　are　arranged　in　bundles；　called　〃optical　cables；〃　
to　carry　digitized　packets　of　information　over　long　distances。　Because　these　optical　
fibers　are　so　much　thinner　than　copper　wires；　more　fibers　can　be　bundled　into　a　given　
diameter　of　cable　than　can　copper　wires；　which　means　that　much　more　data　or　many　more　
voices　can　be　sent　over　the　same　cable　at　a　lower　cost。　The　most　important　benefit　
of　fiber；　though；　derives　from　the　dramatically　higher　bandwidth　of　the　signals　it　
can　transport　over　long　distances。　Copper　wires　can　carry　very　high　frequencies　too；　
but　only　for　a　few　feet　before　the　signal　starts　to　degrade　in　strength　due　to　certain　
parasitic　effects。　Optical　fibers；　by　contrast；　can　carry　very　high…frequency　optical　
pulses　on　the　same　individual　fiber　without　substantial　signal　degradation　for　many；　
many　miles。　
The　way　fiber…optic　cables　work；　explains　one　of　the　manufacturers；　ARC　Electronics；　
on　its　Web　site；　is　by　converting　data　or　voices　into　light　pulses　and　then　
transmitting　them　down　fiber　lines；　instead　of　using　electronic　pulses　to　transmit　
information　down　copper　lines。　At　one　end　of　the　fiber…optic　system　is　a　transmitter。　
The　transmitter　accepts　coded　electronic　pulse　information…words　or　data…coming　from　
copper　wire　out　of　your　home　telephone　or　office　computer。　The　transmitter　then　
processes　and　translates　those　digitized；　electronically　coded　words　or　data　into　
equivalently　coded　light　pulses。　A　light…emitting　diode　（LED）　
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or　an　injection…laser　diode　（ILD）　can　be　used　to　generate　the　light　pulses；　which　
are　then　funneled　down　the　fiber…optic　cable。　The　cable　functions　as　a　kind　of　light　
guide；　guiding　the　light　pulses　introduced　at　one　end　of　the　cable　through　to　the　


other　end；　where　a　light…sensitive　receiver　converts　the　pulses　back　into　the　
electronic　digital　Is　and　Os　of　the　original　signal；　so　they　can　then　show　up　on　your　
computer　screen　as　e…mail　or　in　your　cell　phone　as　a　voice。　Fiber…optic　cable　is　also　
ideal　for　secure　communications；　because　it　is　very　difficult　to　tap。　
It　was　actually　the　coincidence　of　the　dot…com　boom　and　the　Telecommunications　Act　
of　1996　that　launched　the　fiber…optic　bubble。　The　act　allowed　local　and　long…distance　
companies　to　get　into　each　other's　businesses；　and　enabled　all　sorts　of　new　local　
exchange　carriers　to　compete　head…to…head　with　the　Baby　Bells　and　AT&T　in　providing　
both　phone　services　and　infrastructure。　As　these　new　phone　companies　came　online；　
offering　their　own　local；　long…distance；　international；　data；　and　Internet　services；　
each　soughtto　have　its　own　infrastructure。　And　why　not？The　Internet　boom　led　everyone　
to　assume　that　the　demand　for　bandwidth　to　carry　all　that　Internet　traffic　would　double　
every　three　months…indefinitely。　For　about　two　years　that　was　true。　But　then　the　law　
of　large　numbers　started　to　kick　in；　and　the　pace　of　doubling　slowed。　Unfortunately；　
the　telecom　companies　weren't　paying　close　attention　to　the　developing　mismatch　
between　demand　and　reality。　The　market　was　in　the　grip　of　an　Internet　fever；　and　
companies　just　kept　building　more　and　more　capacity。　And　the　stock　market　boom　meant　
money　was　free！　It　was　a　party！　So　every　one　of　these　incredibly　optimistic　scenarios　
from　every　one　of　these　new　telecom　companies　got　funded。　In　a　period　of　about　five　
or　six　years；　these　telecom　companies　invested　about　　1　trillion　in　wiring　the　world。　
And　virtually　no　one　questioned　the　demand　projections。　
Few　companies　got　crazier　than　Global　Crossing；　one　of　the　companies　hired　by　all　
these　new　telecoms　to　lay　fiber…optic　cable　for　them　around　the　world。　Global　Crossing　
was　founded　in　1997　by　Gary　Winnick　and　went　public　the　next　year。　Robert　Annunziata；　
who　lasted　only　a　year　as　CEO；　had　a　contract　that　the　Corporate　Library's　Nell　Minow　
once　

picked　as　the　worst　（from　the　point　of　view　of　shareholders）　in　the　United　States。　
Among　other　things；　it　included　Annunziata's　mother's　first…class　airfare　to　visit　
him　once　a　month。　It　also　included　a　signing　bonus　of　2　million　shares　of　stock　at　
10　a　share　below　market。　
Henry　Schacht；　a　veteran　industrialist　now　with　E。　M。　Warburg；　Pincus　&　Co。；　was　
brought　in　by　Lucent；　the　successor　of　Western　Electric；　to　help　manage　it　through　
this　crazy　period。　He　recalled　the　atmosphere：　〃The　telecom　deregulation　of　1996　was　
hugely　important。　It　allowed　competitive　local　exchange　carriers　to　build　their　own　
capacities　and　sell　in　competition　with　each　other　and　with　the　Baby　Bells。　These　
new　telecoms　went　to　companies　like　Global　Crossing　and　had　them　install　fiber　
networks　for　them　so　they　could　compete　at　the　transport　level　with　AT&T　and　MCI；　
particularly　on　overseas　traffic　。　。　。　Everyone　thought　this　was　a　new　world；　and　
it　would　never　stop。　＇You　had＇　competitive　firms　using　free　capital；　and　everyone　
thought　the　pie　would　expand　infinitely。　So　＇each　company　said；＇　'I　will　put　my　fiber　
down　before　you　do；　and　I　will　get　a　bigger　share　than　you。'　It　was　supposed　to　be　
just　a　vertical　growth　line；　straight　up；　and　we　each　thought　we　would　get　our　share；　
so　everybodybuilt　to　the　max　projections　and　assumed　that　they　would　get　their　share。〃　


It　turned　out　that　while　business…to…business　and　e…commerce　developed　as　projected；　
and　a　lot　of　Web　sites　that　no　one　anticipated　exploded…like　eBay；　Amazon；　and　
Google…they　still　devoured　only　a　fraction　of　the　capacity　that　was　being　made　
available。　So　when　the　dotcom　bust　came　along；　there　was　just　way　too　much　fiber…optic　
cable　out　there。　Long…distance　phone　rates　went　from　2　a　minute　to　100。　And　the　
transmission　of　data　was　virtually　free。　〃The　telecom　industry　has　invested　itself　
right　out　of　a　business；〃　Mike　McCue；　chief　operations　officer　of　Tellme　Networks；　
a　voice…activated　Internet　service；　told　CNET　News。com　in　June　2001。　〃They've　laid　
so　much　fiber　in　the　ground　that　they've　basically　commoditized　themselves。　They　are　
going　to　get　into　massive　price　wars　with　everyone　and　it's　going　to　be　a　disaster。〃　
It　was　a　disaster　for　many　of　the　companies　and　their　investors　（Global　Crossing　filed　
for　bankruptcy　in　January　2002；　with　12。4　billion　in　debt）；　but　it　turned　out　to　
be　a　great　boon　for　consumers。　Just　as　the　na

tional　highway　system　that　was　built　in　the　1950s　flattened　the　United　States；　broke　
down　regional　differences；　and　made　it　so　much　easier　for　companies　to　relocate　in　
lower…wage　regions；　like　the　South；　because　ithad　become　so　much　easier　to　move　people　
and　goods　long　distances；　so　the　laying　of　global　fiber　highways　flattened　the　
developed　world。　It　helped　to　break　down　global　regionalism；　create　a　more　seamless　
global　commercial　network；　and　made　it　simple　and　almost　free　to　move　digitized　
labor…service　jobs　and　knowledge　work…to　lower…cost　countries。　
（It　should　be　noted；　though；　that　those　fiber　highways　in　America　tended　to　stop　at　
the　last　mile…before　connecting　to　households。　While　a　huge　amount　of　long…distance　
fiber　cable　was　laid　to　connect　India　and　America；　virtually　none　of　these　new　U。S。　
telecom　companies　laid　any　substantial　new　local　loop　infrastructure；　due　to　a　failure　
of　the　1996　telecom　deregulation　act　to　permit　real　competition　in　the　local　loop　
between　the　cable　companies　and　the　telephone　companies。　Where　the　local　broadband　
did　get　installed　was　in　office　buildings；　which　were　already　pretty　well　served　by　
the　old　companies。　So　this　pushed　prices　down　for　businesses…and　for　Indians　who　
wanted　to　get　online　from　Bangalore　to　do　business　with　those　businesses…but　it　didn't　
create　the　sort　of　competition　that　could　bring　cheap　broadband　capability　to　the　
American　masses　in　their　homes。　That　has　started　happening　only　more　recently。）　
The　broad　overinvestment　in　fiber　cable　is　a　gift　that　keeps　on　giving；　thanks　to　
the　unique　nature　of　fiber　optics。　Unlike　other　forms　of　Internet　overinvestment；　
it　was　permanent：　Once　the　fiber　cables　were　laid；　no　one　was　going　to　dig　them　up　
and　thereby　eliminate　the　overcapacity。　So　when　the　telecom　companies　went　bankrupt；　
the　banks　took　them　over　and　then　sold　their　fiber　cables　for　ten　cents　on　the　dollar　
to　new　companies；　which　continued　to　operate　them；　which　they　could　do　profitably；　
having　bought　them　in　a　fire　sale。　But　the　way　fiber　cable　works　is　that　each　cable　
has　multiple　strands　of　fiber　init　with　a　potential　capacityto　transmit　many　terabits　
of　data　per　second　on　each　strand。　When　these　fiber　cables　were　originally　laid；　the　
optical　switches…the　transmitters　and　receivers…at　each　end　of　them　could　not　take　
full　advantage　of　the　fiber's　full　capacity。　But　every　year　since　then；　the　optical　
switches　


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at　each　end　of　t