the.world.is.flat-第37部分

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


you　can　now　store　to　input　and　output　〃is　off　the　charts；　thanks　to　the　steady　advances　
in　storage　devices；〃　said　Craig　Mundie；　Microsoft's　chief　technology　officer。　
〃Storage　is　growing　exponentially；　and　this　is　really　as　much　a　factor　in　the　
revolution　as　anything　else。〃　It's　what　is　allowing　all　forms　of　content　to　become　
digital　and　to　some　extent　portable。　It　is　also　becoming　cheap　enough　that　you　can　
put　massive　amounts　on　even　the　personal　devices　people　carry　around　with　them。　Five　
years　ago；　no　one　would　have　believed　that　you　would　be　able　to　sell　iPods　with　40　
gigabytes　ofstorage；　capable　of　holding　thousands　of　songs；　for　prices　that　teenagers　
could　afford。　Now　it's　seen　as　ho…hum。　And　when　it　comes　to　moving　all　these　bits　
around；　the　computing　world　has　been　turbocharged。　Advances　in　fiber　optics　will　soon　
allow　a　single　fiber　to　carry　1　terabit　per　second。　With　48　fibers　in　a　cable；　that's　
48　terabits　per　second。　Henry　Schacht；　the　former　CEO　of　Lucent；　which　specialized　
in　this　technology；　pointed　out　that　with　that　much　capacity；　you　could　〃transmit　
all　the　

printed　material　in　the　world　in　minutes　in　a　single　cable。　This　means　unlimited　
transmitting　capacity　at　zero　incremental　cost。〃　Even　though　the　speeds　that　Schacht　
was　talking　about　apply　only　to　the　backbone　of　the　fiber　network；　and　not　that　last　
mile　into　your　house　and　into　your　computer；　we　are　still　talking　about　a　quantum　
leap　forward。　
In　The　Lexus　and　the　Olive　Tree；　I　wrote　about　a　1999　Qwest　commercial　showing　a　
businessman；　tired　and　dusty；　checking　in　to　a　roadside　motel　inthe　middle　of　nowhere。　
He　asks　the　bored…looking　desk　clerk　whether　they　have　room　service　and　other　
amenities。　She　says　yes。　Then　he　asks　her　whether　entertainment　is　available　on　his　
room　television；　and　the　clerk　answers　in　a　what…do…you…think…you…idiot　monotone；　
〃All　rooms　have　every　movie　ever　made　in　every　language；　anytime；　day　or　night。〃　I　
wrote　about　that　back　then　as　an　example　of　what　happens　when　you　get　connected　to　
the　Internet。　Today　it　is　an　example　of　how　much　you　can　now　get　disconnected　from　
the　Internet；　because　in　the　next　few　years；　as　storage　continues　to　advance　and　become　
more　and　more　miniaturized；　you　will　be　able　to　buy　enough　storage　to　carry　many　of　
those　movies　around　in　your　pocket。　
Then　add　another　hardware　steroid　to　the　mix：　file　sharing。　It　started　with　Napster　
paving　the　way　for　two　of　us　to　share　songs　stored　on　each　other's　computers。　〃At　
its　peak；〃　according　to　Howstuffworks。com；　〃Napster　was　perhaps　the　most　popular　
Website　ever　created。　In　less　than　a　year；　it　went　from　zero　to　60　million　visitors　
per　month。　Then　it　was　shut　down　by　a　court　order　because　of　copyright　violations；　


and　wouldn't　re…launch　until　2003　as　a　legal　music…download　site。　The　original　Napster　
became　so　popular　so　quickly　because　it　offered　a　unique　product…free　music　that　you　
could　obtain　nearly　effortlessly　from　a　gigantic　database。〃　That　database　was　
actually　a　file…sharing　architecture　by　which　Napster　facilitated　a　connection　
between　my　computer　and　yours　so　that　we　could　swap　music　files。　The　original　Napster　
is　dead；　but　file…sharing　technologyis　still　around　and　is　getting　more　sophisticated　
every　day；　greatly　enhancing　collaboration。　
Finally；　add　one　last　hardware　steroid　that　brings　these　technology　breakthroughs　
together　for　consumers：　the　steady　breakthrough　in　multipurpose　devices…ever　smaller　
and　more　powerful　laptops；　cell　phones；　
167　
you　could　practically　feel　the　breath　of　the　other　parties　to　the　videocon…ference；　
when　in　fact　half　of　us　were　in　Santa　Barbara　and　half　were　five　hundred　miles　away。　
Because　DreamWorks　is　doing　film　and　animation　work　all　over　the　world；　it　felt　that　
it　had　to　have　a　videoconferencing　solution　where　its　creative　people　could　really　
communicate　all　their　thoughts；　facial　expressions；　feelings；　ire；　enthusiasm；　and　
raised　eyebrows。　HP's　chief　strategy　and　technology　officer；　Shane　Robison；　told　me　
that　HP　plans　to　have　these　videoconferencing　suites　for　sale　by　2005　at　a　cost　of　
roughly　250；000　each。　That　is　nothing　compared　to　the　airline　tickets　and　wear　and　
tear　on　executives　having　to　travel　regularly　to　London　or　Tokyo　for　face…to…face　
meetings。　Companies　could　easily　make　one　of　these　suites　pay　for　itself　in　a　year。　
This　level　of　videoconferencing；　once　it　proliferates；　will　make　remote　development；　
outsourcing；　and　off…shoring　that　much　easier　and　more　efficient。　
And　now　the　icing　on　the　cake；　the　iibersteroid　that　makes　it　all　mobile：　wireless。　
Wireless　is　what　will　allow　you　take　everything　that　has　been　digitized；　made　virtual　
and　personal；　and　do　it　from　anywhere。　
〃The　natural　state　of　communications　is　wireless；〃　argued　Alan　Cohen；　the　senior　vice　
president　at　Airespace。　It　started　with　voice；　because　people　wanted　to　be　able　to　
make　a　phone　call　anytime；　from　anyplace；　to　anywhere。　That　is　why　for　many　people　
the　cell　phone　is　the　most　importantphone　they　own。　By　the　early　twenty…first　century；　
people　began　to　develop　that　same　expectation　and　with　it　the　desire　for　data　
communication…the　ability　to　access　the　Internet；　e…mail；　or　any　business　files　
anytime；　anywhere；　using　a　cell　phone；　PalmPilot；　or　some　other　personal　device。　（And　
now　a　third　element　is　entering　the　picture；　creating　more　demand　for　wireless　
technology　and　enhancing　the　flattening　of　the　earth：　machines　talking　to　machines　
wirelessly；　such　as　Wal…Mart's　RFIDchips；　little　wireless　devices　that　automatically　
transmit　information　to　suppliers'　computers；　allowing　them　to　track　inventory。）　
In　the　early　days　of　computing　（Globalization　2。0）；　you　worked　in　the　office。　There　
was　a　big　mainframe　computer；　and　you　literally　had　to　walk　over　and　get　the　people　
running　the　mainframe　to　extract　or　input　
168　
information　for　you。　It　was　like　an　oracle。　Then；　thanks　to　the　PC　and　the　Internet；　
e…mail；　the　laptop；　the　browser；　and　the　client　server；　I　could　access　from　my　own　
screen　all　sorts　of　data　and　information　being　stored　on　the　network。　In　this　era　


you　were　delinked　from　the　office　and　could　work　at　home；　at　the　beach　house；　or　in　
a　hotel。　Now　we　are　in　Globalization　3。0；　where；　thanks　to　digitization；　
miniaturization；　virtualization；　personalization；　and　wireless；　I　can　be　processing；　
collecting；　or　transmitting　voice　or　data　from　anywhere　to　anywhere…as　an　individual　
or　as　a　machine。　
〃Your　desk　goes　with　you　everywhere　you　are　now；〃　said　Cohen。　And　the　more　people　
have　the　ability　to　push　and　pull　information　from　anywhere　to　anywhere　faster；　the　
more　barriers　to　competition　and　communication　disappear。　All　of　a　sudden；　my　business　
has　phenomenal　distribution。　I　don't　care　whether　you　are　in　Bangalore　or　Bangor；　
I　can　get　to　you　and　you　can　get　to　me。　More　and　more；　people　now　want　and　expect　
wireless　mobility　to　be　there；　just　like　electricity。　We　are　rapidly　moving　into　the　
age　of　the　〃mobile　me；〃　said　Padmasree　Warrior；　the　chief　technology　officer　of　
Motorola。　If　consumers　are　paying　for　any　form　of　content；　whether　it　is　information；　
entertainment；　data；　games；　or　stock　quotes；　they　increasingly　want　to　be　able　to　
access　it　anytime；　anywhere。　
Right　now　consumers　are　caught　in　a　maze　of　wireless　technology　offerings　and　
standards　that　are　still　not　totally　interoperable。　As　we　all　know；　some　wireless　
technology　works　in　one　neighborhood；　state；　or　country　and　not　in　another。　
The　〃mobile　me〃　revolution　will　be　complete　when　you　can　move　seamlessly　around　the　
town；　the　country；　or　the　world　with　whatever　device　you　want。　The　technology　is　
getting　there。　When　this　is　fully　diffused；　the　〃mobile　me〃　will　have　its　full　
flattening　effect；　by　freeing　people　to　truly　be　able　to　work　and　communicate　from　
anywhere　to　anywhere　with　anything。　
I　got　a　taste　of　what　is　coming　by　spending　a　morning　at　the　Tokyo　headquarters　of　
NTT　DoCoMo；　the　Japanese　cellular　giant　that　is　at　the　cutting　edge　of　this　process　
and　far　ahead　of　America　in　offering　total　interoperability　inside　Japan。　DoCoMo　is　
an　abbreviation　for　Do　

Communications　Over　the　Mobile　Network；　it　also　means　〃anywhere〃　in　Japanese。　My　day　
at　DoCoMo's　headquarters　started　with　a　tour　conducted　by　a　robot；　which　bowed　in　
perfect　Japanese　fashion　and　then　gave　me　a　spin　around　DoCoMo's　showroom；　which　now　
features　handheld　video　cell　phones　so　you　can　see　the　person　you　are　speaking　with。　
〃Young　people　are　using　our　mobile　phones　today　as　two…way　videophones；〃　explained　
Tamon　Mitsuishi；　senior　VP　of　the　Ubiquitous　Business　Department　at　DoCoMo。　〃Everyone　
takes　out　their　phones；　they　start　dialing　each　other　and　have　visual　conversations。　
Of　course　there　are　some　people　who　prefer　not　to　see　each　other's　faces。〃　Thanks　
to　DoCoMo　technology；　if　you　don't　want　to　show　your　face　you　can　substitute　a　cartoon　
character　for　yourself　and　manipulate　the　keyboard　so　that　it　not　only　will　speak　
for　you　but　also　will　get　angry　for　you　and　get　happy　for　you。　〃So　this　is　a　mobile　
phone；　and　video　camera；　but　it　has　also　evolved　to　the　extent　that　it　has　functions　
similar　to　a　PC；〃　he　added。　〃You　need　to　move　your　buttons　quickly　＇with　your　thumb＇。　
We　call　ourselves　'the　thumb　people。'　Young　girls　in　high　school　can　now　move　their　
thumbs　faster　than　they　can　type　on　a　PC。〃　
By　the　way；　I　asked；　what　does　the　〃Ubiquitous　Department〃　do？　


〃Now　that　we　have　seen　the　spread　of　the　Internet　around　the　world；〃　answered　Mitsuishi；　
〃what　we　believe　we　have　to　offer　is　the　next　step。　Internet　communication　until　today　
has　been　mostly　between　individuals…e…mail　and　other　information。　But　what　we　are　
already　starting　to　see　is　communication　between　individuals　and　machines　and　between　
machines。　We　are　moving　into　that　kind　of　phenomenon；　because　people　want　to　lead　
a　richer　lifestyle；　and　businesses　want　more　efficient　practices　。。。　So　young　people　
in　their　business　life　use　PCs　in　the　offices；　but　in　their　private　time　they　base　
their　lifestyles　on　a　mobile　phone。　There　is　now　a　growing　movement　to　allow　payment　
by　mobile　phone。　＇With＇　a　smart　card　you　will　be　a