the.world.is.flat-第39部分
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Dom: (Long pause) Bizhub?
VO: (Over an animated graphic of bizhub illustrating its multiple functions) Amazing
versatility and affordable color。 That's bizhub; from Konica Minolta。
(Cut to Dom alone at the bizhub machine; trying to see if it will also dispense coffee
into his mug。)
Southwest was able to offer its at…home ticketing; and Konica Minolta could offer
bizhub; because of what I call the triple convergence。 What are the components of
this triple convergence? The short answer is this: First; right around the year 2000;
all ten of the flatteners discussed in the previous chapter started to converge and
work together in ways that created a new; flatter; global playing field。 As this new
playing field became established; both businesses and individuals began to adopt new
habits; skills; and processes to get the most out of it。 They moved from largely
vertical means of creating value to more horizontal ones。 The merger of this new
playing field for doing business with the new ways of doing business was the second
convergence; and it actually helped to flatten the world even further。 Finally; just
when all of this flattening was happening; a whole new group of people; several billion;
in fact; walked out onto the playing field from China; India; and the former Soviet
Empire。 Thanks to the new flat world; and its new tools; some of them were quickly
able to collaborate and compete directly with everyone else。 This was the third
convergence。 Now let's look at each in detail。
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Convergence I
All ten flatteners discussed in the previous chapter have been around; we know; since
the 1990s; if not earlier。 But they had to spread and take root and connect with one
another to work their magic on the world。 For instance; at some point around 2003;
Southwest Airlines realized that there were enough PCs around; enough bandwidth;
enough computer storage; enough Internet…comfortable customers; and enough software
know…how for Southwest to create a work flow system that empowered its customers to
download and print out their own boarding passes at home; as easily as downloading
a piece of e…mail。 Southwest could collaborate with its customers and they with
Southwest in a new way。 And somewhere around the same time; the work flow software
and hardware converged in a way that enabled Konica Minolta to offer scanning;
e…mailing; printing; faxing; and copying all from the same machine。 This is the first
convergence。
As Stanford University economist Paul Romer pointed out; economists have known for
a long time that 〃there are goods that are complementary…whereby good A is a lot more
valuable if you also have good B。 It was good to have paper and then it was good to
have pencils; and soon as you got more of one you got more of the other; and as you
got a better quality of one and better quality of the other; your productivity improved。
This is known as the simultaneous improvement of complementary goods。〃
It is my contention that the opening of the Berlin Wall; Netscape; work flow;
outsourcing; offshoring; open…sourcing; insourcing; supply…chaining; in…forming;
and the steroids amplifying them all reinforced one another; like complementary goods。
They just needed time to converge and start to work together in a complementary;
mutually enhancing fashion。 That tipping point arrived sometime around the year 2000。
The net result of this convergence was the creation of a global; Web…enabled playing
field that allows for multiple forms of collaboration…the sharing of knowledge and
work…in real time; without regard to geography; distance; or; in the near future;
even language。 No; not everyone has access yet to this platform; this playing field;
but it is open today to more people in more places on more days in more ways than
anything like it ever before
in the history of the world。 This is what I mean when I say the world has been flattened。
It is the complementary convergence of the ten flatteners; creating this new global
playing field for multiple forms of collaboration。
Convergence II
Great; you say; but why is it only in the past few years that we started to see in
the United States the big surges in productivity that should be associated with such
a technological leap? Answer: Because it always takes time for all the flanking
technologies; and the business processes and habits needed to get the most out of
them; to converge and create that next productivity breakthrough。
Introducing new technology alone is never enough。 The big spurts in productivity come
when a new technology is combined with new ways of doing business。 Wal…Mart got big
productivity boosts when it combined big box stores…where people could buy soap
supplies for six months…with new; horizontal supply…chain management systems that
allowed Wal…Mart instantly to connect what a consumer took off the shelf from a
Wal…Mart in Kansas City with what a Wal…Mart supplier in coastal China would produce。
When computers were first introduced into offices; everyone expected a big boost in
productivity。 But that did not happen right away; and it sparked both disappointment
and a little confusion。 The noted economist Robert Solow quipped that computers are
everywhere… except 〃in the productivity statistics。〃
In a pathbreaking 1989 essay; 〃Computer and Dynamo: The Modern Productivity Paradox
in a Not…Too Distant Mirror;〃 the economic historian Paul A。 David explained such
a lag by pointing to a historical precedent。 He noted that while the lightbulb was
invented in 1879; it took several decades for electrification to kick in and have
a big economic and productivity impact。 Why? Because it was not enough just to install
electric motors and scrap the old technology…steam engines。 The whole way of doing
manufacturing had to be reconfigured。 In the
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case of electricity; David pointed out; the key breakthrough was in how buildings;
and assembly lines; were redesigned and managed。 Factories in the steam age tended
to be heavy; costly multistory buildings designed to brace the weighty belts and other
big transmission devices needed to drive steam…powered systems。 Once small; powerful
electric motors were introduced; everyone hoped for a quick productivity boost。 It
took time; though。 To get all the savings; you needed to redesign enough buildings。
You needed to have long; low; cheaper…to…build single…story factories; with small
electric motors powering machines of all sizes。 Only when there was a critical mass
of experienced factory architects and electrical engineers and managers; who
understood the complementarities among the electric motor; the redesign of the
factory; and the redesign of the production line; did electrification really deliver
the productivity breakthrough in manufacturing; David wrote。
The same thing is happening today with the flattening of the world。 Many of the ten
flatteners have been around for years。 But for the full flattening effects to be felt;
we needed not only the ten flatteners to converge but also something else。 We needed
the emergence of a large cadre of managers; innovators; business consultants;
business schools; designers; IT specialists; CEOs; and workers to get comfortable
with; and develop; the sorts of horizontal collaboration and value…creation processes
and habits that could take advantage of this new; flatter playing field。 In short;
the convergence of the ten flatteners begat the convergence of a set of business
practices and skills that would get the most out of the flat world。 And then the two
began to mutually reinforce each other。
〃When people asked; 'Why didn't the IT revolution lead to more productivity right
away?' it was because you needed more than just new computers;〃 saidRomer。 〃You needed
new business processes and new types of skills to go with them。 The new way of doing
things makes the information technologies more valuable; and the new and better
information technologies make the new ways of doing things more possible。〃
Globalization 2。0 was really the era of mainframe computing; which was very
vertical…command…and…control oriented; with companies and their individual
departments tending to be organized in vertical silos。 Globalization 3。0; which is
built around the convergence of the ten flat179
teners; and particularly the combination of the PC; the microprocessor; the Internet;
and fiber optics; flipped the playing field from largely top…down to more side to
side。 And this naturally fostered and demanded new business practices; which were
less about command and control and more about connecting and collaborating
horizontally。
〃We have gone from a vertical chain of command for value creation to a much more
horizontal chain ofcommand for value creation;〃 explained Carly Fiorina。 Innovations
in companies like HP; she said; now come more and more often from horizontal
collaboration among different departments and teams spread all across the globe。 For
instance; HP; Cisco; and Nokia recently collaborated on the development of a camera/
cell phone that beams its digitized pictures to an HP printer; which quickly prints
them out。 Each company had developed a very sophisticated technological specialty;
but it could add value only when its specialty was horizontally combined with the
specialties of the other two companies。
〃How you collaborate horizontally and manage horizontally requires a totally
different set of skills〃 from traditional top…down approaches; Fiorina added。
Let me offer just a few examples。 In the past five years; HP has gone from a company
that had eighty…seven different supply chains…each managed vertically and
independently; with its own hierarchy of managers and back…office support…to a
company with just five supply chains that manage 50 billion in business; and where
functions like accounting; billing; and human resources are handled through a
companywide system。
Southwest Airlines took advantage of the convergence of the ten flat…teners to create
a system where its customers can download their boarding passes at home。 But until
I personally altered my ticket…buying hab