the.world.is.flat-第44部分

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〃You　can　really　see　the　pressures　ofthe　marketplace　and　how　they　work；〃　said　Pickering。　
〃It's　like　watching　a　horse　race。〃　
The　Other　Triple　Convergence　
I　once　heard　Bill　Bradley　tell　a　story　about　a　high…society　woman　from　Boston　who　
goes　to　San　Francisco　for　the　first　time。　When　she　comes　home　and　is　asked　by　a　friend　
how　she　liked　it；　she　says；　〃Not　very　much…it's　too　far　from　the　ocean。〃　
The　perspective　and　predispositions　that　you　carry　around　in　your　head　are　very　
important　in　shaping　what　you　see　and　what　you　don't　see。　That　helps　to　explain　why　
a　lot　of　people　missed　the　triple　convergence。　Their　heads　were　completely　somewhere　
else…even　though　it　was　happening　right　before　their　eyes。　Three　other　things…another　
convergence…　came　together　to　create　this　smoke　screen。　
The　first　was　the　dot…com　bust；　which　began　in　March　2001。　As　I　said　earlier；　many　
people　wrongly　equated　the　dot…com　boom　with　globalization。　So　when　the　dot…com　boom　
went　bust；　and　so　many　dot…coms　（and　the　firms　that　supported　them）　imploded；　these　
same　people　assumed　that　globalization　was　imploding　as　well。　The　sudden　flameout　
of　dogfood。com　and　ten　other　Web　sites　offering　to　deliver　ten　pounds　of　puppy　chow　
to　your　door　in　thirty　minutes　was　supposed　to　be　proof　that　globalization　and　the　
IT　revolution　were　all　sizzle　and　no　beef。　
This　was　pure　foolishness。　Those　who　thought　that　globalization　was　the　same　thing　
as　the　dot…com　boom　and　that　the　dot…com　bust　marked　the　end　of　globalization　could　
not　have　been　more　wrong。　To　say　it　again；　the　dot…com　bust　actually　drove　
globalization　into　hypermode　by　forcing　companies　to　outsource　and　offshore　more　and　
more　functions　in　order　to　save　on　scarce　capital。　This　was　a　key　factor　in　laying　
the　groundwork　for　
198　
Globalization　3。0。　Between　the　dot…com　bust　and　today；　Google　went　from　processing　


roughly　150　million　searches　per　day　to　roughly　one　billion　searches　per　day；　with　
only　a　third　coming　from　inside　the　United　States。　As　its　auction　model　caught　on　
worldwide；　eBay　went　from　twelve　hundred　employees　in　early　2000　to　sixty…three　
hundred　by　2004；　all　in　the　period　when　globalization　was　supposed　to　be　〃over。〃　
Between　2000　and　2004；　total　global　Internet　usage　grew　125　percent；　including　186　
percent　in　Africa；　209　percent　in　Latin　America；　124　percent　in　Europe；　and　105　percent　
in　North　America；　according　to　Nielsen/　NetRatings。　Yes；　globalization　sure　ended；　
all　right。　
It　was　not　just　the　dot…com　bust　and　all　the　hot　air　surrounding　it　that　obscured　
all　this　from　view。　There　were　two　other　big　clouds　that　moved　in。　The　biggest；　of　
course；　was　9/11；　which　was　a　profound　shock　to　the　American　body　politic。　Given　9/11；　
and　the　Afghanistan　and　Iraq　invasions　that　followed；　it's　not　surprising　that　the　
triple　convergence　was　lost　in　the　fog　of　war　and　the　chatter　of　cable　television。　
Finally；　there　was　the　Enron　corporate　governance　scandal；　quickly　followed　by　
blowups　at　Tyco　and　WorldCom…which　all　sent　CEOs　and　the　Bush　administration　running　
for　cover。　CEOs；　with　some　justification；　became　guilty　until　proven　innocent　of　
boardroom　shenanigans；　and　even　the　slavishly　probusiness；　pro…CEO　Bush　
administration　was　wary　of　appearing…in　public…to　be　overly　solicitous　of　the　
concerns　of　big　business。　In　the　spring　of　2004；1　met　with　the　head　of　one　of　America's　
biggest　technology　companies；　who　had　come　to　Washington　to　lobby　for　more　federal　
funding　for　the　National　Science　Foundation　to　help　nurture　a　stronger　industrial　
base　for　American　industry。　I　asked　him　why　the　administration　wasn't　convening　a　
summit　of　CEOs　to　highlight　this　issue；　and　he　just　shook　his　head　and　said　one　word：　
〃Enron。〃　
The　result：　At　the　precise　moment　when　the　world　was　being　flattened；　and　the　triple　
convergence　was　reshaping　the　whole　global　business　environment…requiring　some　very　
important　adjustments　in　our　own　society　and　that　of　many　other　Western　developed　
nations…American　politicians　not　only　were　not　educating　the　American　public；　they　
were　actively　working　to　make　it　stupid。　During　the　2004　election　campaign　

we　saw　the　Democrats　debating　whether　NAFTA　was　a　good　idea　and　the　Bush　White　House　
putting　duct　tape　over　the　mouth　of　N。　Gregory　Mankiw；　the　chairman　of　the　White　House　
Council　of　Economic　Advisers；　and　stashing　him　away　in　Dick　Cheney's　basement；　because　
Mankiw；　author　of　a　popular　college　economics　textbook；　had　dared　to　speak　approvingly　
of　oursourcing　as　just　the　〃latest　manifestation　of　the　gains　from　trade　that　
economists　have　talked　about　at　least　since　Adam　Smith。〃　
Mankiw's　statement　triggered　a　competition　for　who　could　say　the　most　ridiculous　thing　
in　response。　The　winner　was　Speaker　of　theHouse　Dennis　Hastert；　who　said　that　Mankiw's　
〃theory　fails　a　basic　test　of　real　economics。〃　And　what　test　was　that；　Dennis？　Poor　
Mankiw　was　barely　heard　from　again。　
For　all　these　reasons；　most　people　missed　the　triple　convergence。　Something　really　
big　was　happening；　and　it　was　simply　not　part　of　public　discourse　in　America　or　Europe。　
Until　I　visited　India　in　early　2004；1　too　was　largely　ignorant　of　it；　although　I　was　
picking　up　a　few　hints　that　something　was　brewing。　One　of　the　most　thoughtful　business　


leaders　I　have　come　to　know　over　the　years　is　Nobuyuki　Idei；　the　chairman　of　Sony。　
Whenever　he　speaks；　I　pay　close　attention。　We　saw　each　other　twice　during　2004；　and　
both　times　he　said　something　through　his　heavy　Japanese　accent　that　stuck　in　my　ear。　
Idei　said　that　a　change　was　under　way　in　the　business…technology　world　that　would　
be　remembered；　in　time；　like　〃the　meteor　that　hit　the　earth　and　killed　all　the　
dinosaurs。〃　Fortunately；　the　cutting…edge　global　companies　knew　what　was　going　on　
out　there；　and　the　best　companies　were　quietly　adapting　to　it　so　that　they　would　not　
be　one　of　those　dinosaurs。　
As　I　started　researching　this　book；　I　felt　at　times　like　I　was　in　a　Twilight　Zone　
segment。　I　would　interview　CEOs　and　technologists　from　major　companies；　both　
American…based　and　foreign；　and　they　would　describe　in　their　own　ways　what　I　came　
to　call　the　triple　convergence。　But；　for　all　the　reasons　I　explained　above；　most　of　
them　weren't　telling　the　public　or　the　politicians。　They　were　either　too　distracted；　
too　focused　on　their　own　businesses；　or　too　afraid。　It　was　like　they　were　all　〃pod　
people；〃　living　in　

a　parallel　universe；　who　were　in　on　a　big　secret。　Yes；　they　all　knew　the　secret…but　
nobody　wanted　to　tell　the　kids。　
Well；　here's　the　truth　that　no　one　wanted　to　tell　you：　The　world　has　been　flattened。　
As　a　result　of　the　triple　convergence；　global　collaboration　and　competition…between　
individuals　and　individuals；　companies　and　individuals；　companies　and　companies；　and　
companies　and　customers…have　been　made　cheaper；　easier；　more　friction…free；　and　more　
productive　for　more　people　from　more　corners　of　the　earth　than　at　any　time　in　the　
history　of　the　world。　
You　know　〃the　IT　revolution〃　that　the　business　press　has　been　touting　for　the　last　
twenty　years？　Sorry；　but　that　was　only　the　prologue。　The　last　twenty　years　were　just　
about　forging；　sharpening；　and　distributing　all　the　new　tools　with　which　to　
collaborate　and　connect。　Now　the　real　IT　revolution　is　about　to　begin；　as　all　the　
complementarities　between　these　tools　start　to　really　work　together　to　level　the　
playing　field。　One　of　those　who　pulled　back　the　curtain　and　called　this　moment　by　
its　real　name　was　HP's　Carly　Fiorina；　who　in　2004　began　to　declare　in　her　public　
speeches　that　the　dot…com　boom　and　bust　were　just　〃the　end　of　the　beginning。〃　The　
last　twenty…five　years　in　technology；　said　Fiorina；　then　the　CEO　of　HP；　have　been　
just　〃the　warm…up　act。〃　Now　we　are　going　into　the　main　event；　she　said；　〃and　by　the　
main　event；　I　mean　an　era　in　which　technology　will　literally　transform　every　aspect　
of　business；　every　aspect　of　life　and　every　aspect　of　society。〃　
：：：：：　FOUR　
The　Great　Sorting　Out　
The　triple　convergence　is　not　only　going　to　affect　how　individuals　prepare　themselves　
for　work；　how　companies　compete；　and　how　countries　organize　their　economies　and　
geopolitics。　Over　time；　it　is　going　to　reshape　political　identities；　recast　political　
parties；　and　redefine　who　is　a　political　actor。　In　short；　in　the　wake　of　this　triple　
convergence　that　we　have　just　gone　through；　we　are　going　to　witness　what　I　call　〃the　
great　sorting　out。〃　Because　when　the　world　starts　to　move　from　a　primarily　vertical　


（command　and　control）　value…creation　model　to　an　increasingly　horizontal　（connect　
and　collaborate）　creation　model；　it　doesn't　affect　just　how　business　gets　done。　It　
affects　everything…how　communities　and　companies　define　themselves；　where　companies　
and　communities　stop　and　start；　how　individuals　balance　their　different　identities　
as　consumers；　employees；　shareholders；　and　citizens；　and　what　role　government　has　
to　play。　All　of　this　is　going　to　have　to　be　sorted　out　anew。　The　most　common　disease　
of　the　flat　world　is　going　to　be　multiple　identity　disorder；　which　is　why；　if　nothing　
else；　political　scientists　are　going　to　have　a　field　day　with　the　flat　world。　Political　
science　may　turn　out　to　be　the　biggest　growth　industry　of　all　in　this　new　era。　Because　
as　we　go　through　this　great　sorting　out　over　the　next　decade；　we　are　going　to　see　
some　very　strange　bedfellows　making　some　very　new　politics。　
I　first　began　thinking　about　the　great　sorting　out　after　a　conversation　with　Harvard　
University's　noted　political　theorist　Michael　J。　Sandel。　Sandel　startled　me　slightly　
by　remarking　that　the　sort　of　flattening　process　that　I　was　describing　was　actually　
first　identified　by　Karl　Marx　

and　Friedrich　Engels　in　the　Communist　Manifesto；　published　in　1848。　While　the　
shrinking　and　flattening　of　the　world　that　we　are　seeing　today　constitute　a　difference　
of　degree　from　what　Marx　saw　happening　in　his　day；　said　Sandel；　it　is　nevertheless　
part　of　the　same　historical　trend　Marx　highlighted　in　his　writings　on　capitalism…the　
inexorable　march　of　technology　and　capital　to　remove　all　barriers；　boundaries；　
frictions；　and　restraints　to　global　commerce。　
〃Marx　was　one　of　the