the.world.is.flat-第51部分

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specialists　whose　jobs　weren't　even　imagined　when　Bill　Clinton　became　president。　I　
like　going　to　coffee　shops　occasionally；　but　now　that　Starbucks　is　here；　I　need　my　
coffee；　and　that　new　need　has　spawned　a　whole　new　industry。　I　always　wanted　to　be　
able　to　search　for　things；　but　once　Google　was　created；　I　must　have　my　search　engine。　
So　a　whole　new　industry　has　been　built　up　around　search；　and　Google　is　hiring　math　
Ph。D。's　by　the　bushel…before　Yahoo！　or　Microsoft　hires　them。　People　are　always　
assuming　that　everything　that　is　going　to　be　invented　must　have　been　invented　already。　
But　it　hasn't　
〃If　you　believe　human　wants　and　needs　are　infinite；〃　said　Andreeseen；　〃then　there　
are　infinite　industries　to　be　created；　infinitebusinesses　to　be　started；　andinfinite　
jobs　to　be　done；　and　the　only　limiting　factor　is　human　imagination。　The　world　is　
flattening　and　rising　at　the　same　time。　And　I　think　the　evidence　is　overwhelmingly　
clear：　If　you　look　over　the　sweep　of　history；　every　time　we　had　more　trade；　more　


communications；　we　had　a　big　upswing　in　economic　activity　and　standard　of　living。〃　
America　integrated　a　broken　Europe　and　Japan　into　the　global　economy　after　World　War　
II；　with　both　Europe　and　Japan　every　year　upgrading　their　manufacturing；　knowledge；　
and　service　skills；　often　importing　and　sometimes　stealing　ideas　and　equipment　from　
the　United　States；　just　as　America　did　from　Britain　in　the　late　1770s。　Yet　in　the　
sixty　years　since　World　War　II；　our　standard　of　living　has　increased　every　decade；　
and　our　unemployment　rate…even　with　all　the　outcry　about　outsourcing…stands　at　only　
a　little　above　5　percent；　roughly　half　that　of　the　most　developed　countries　in　Western　
Europe。　
〃We　just　started　a　company　that　created　180　new　jobs　in　the　middle　of　a　recession；〃　
said　Andreessen；　whose　company；　Opsware；　uses　au232　
tomation　and　software　to　replace　human　beings　in　the　operation　of　huge　server　farms　
in　remotelocations。　Byautomating　these　jobs；　Opsware　enables　companies　to　save　money　
and　free　up　talented　brainpower　from　relatively　mundane　tasks　to　start　new　businesses　
in　other　areas。　You　should　be　afraid　of　free　markets；　argued　Andreessen；　only　if　you　
believe　that　you　will　never　need　new　medicines；　new　work　flow　software；　new　industries；　
new　forms　of　entertainment；　new　coffeehouses。　
〃Yes；〃　he　concluded；　〃it　takes　a　leap　of　faith；　based　on　economics；　to　say　there　will　
be　new　things　to　do。〃　But　there　always　have　been　new　jobs　to　do；　and　there　is　no　
fundamental　reason　to　believe　the　future　will　be　different。　Some　150　years　ago；　90　
percent　of　Americans　worked　in　agriculture　and　related　fields。　Today；　it's　only　3　
or　4　percent。　What　if　the　government　had　decided　to　protect　and　subsidize　all　those　
agricultural　jobs　and　not　embrace　industrialization　and　then　computerization？　Would　
America　as　a　whole　really　be　better　off　today？　Hardly。　
As　noted；　it　is　true　that　as　Indians　or　Chinese　move　up　the　value　chain　and　start　
producing　more　knowledge…intensive　goods…the　sorts　of　things　Americans　have　been　
specializing　in…our　comparative　advantage　in　some　of　these　areas　will　diminish；　
explains　Jagdish　Bhagwati；　the　Columbia　University　expert　on　free　trade。　There　will　
be　a　downward　pressure　on　wages　in　certain　fields；　and　some　of　the　jobs　in　those　fields　
may　permanently　migrate　abroad。　That　is　why　some　knowledge　workers　will　have　to　move　
horizontally。　But　the　growing　pie　will　surely　create　new　specialties　for　them　to　fill　
that　are　impossible　to　predict　right　now。　
For　instance；　there　was　a　time　when　America's　semiconductor　industry　dominated　the　
world；　but　then　companies　from　other　countries　came　along　and　gobbled　up　the　low　end　
of　the　market。　Some　even　moved　into　the　higher　end。　American　companies　were　then　forced　
to　find　newer；　deeper　specialties　in　the　expanded　market。　If　that　weren't　happening；　
Intel　would　be　out　of　business　today。　Instead；　it　is　thriving。　Paul　Otellini；　Intel's　
president；　told　The　Economist　（May　8；　2003）　that　as　chips　become　good　enough　for　
certain　applications；　new　applications　pop　up　that　demand　more　powerful　and　more　
complex　chips；　which　are　Intel's　specialty。　
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Once　Google　starts　offering　video　searches；　for　instance；　there　will　be　demand　for　
new　machines　and　the　chips　that　power　them；　of　which　no　one　was　even　dreaming　five　


years　ago。　This　process　takes　time　to　unfold。　But　it　will；　argued　Bhagwati；　because　
what　is　happening　in　services　today　is　the　same　thing　that　happened　in　manufacturing　
as　trade　barriers　were　lowered。　In　manufacturing；　said　Bhagwati；　as　the　global　market　
expanded　and　more　and　more　players　came　onto　the　field；　you　saw　greater　and　greater　
〃intraindustry　trade；　with　more　and　more　specialization；〃　and　as　we　move　into　the　
knowledge　economy；　you　are　now　seeing　more　and　more　intraservice　trade；　with　more　
and　more　specialization。　
Don't　be　surprised　if　your　son　or　daughter　graduates　from　college　and　calls　you　one　
day　and　says　he　or　she　is　going　to　be　a　〃search　engine　optimizer。〃　
A　what？　
A　slew　of　firms　has　started　up　around　Google；　Yahoo！；　and　Microsoft　to　help　retailers　
strategize　on　how　to　improve　their　rankings；　and　increase　the　number　of　click…throughs　
to　their　Web　sites；　on　these　major　search　engines。　It　can　mean　millions　of　dollars　
in　extra　profits　if；　when　someone　searches　for　〃video　camera；〃　your　company's　product　
comes　up　first；　because　the　people　who　click　through　to　your　Web　site　are　those　most　
likely　to　buy　from　you。　What　these　search　engine　optimizers　（SEOs　as　they　are　called　
in　the　trade）　do　is　constantly　study　the　algorithms　being　used　by　the　major　search　
engines　andthen　design　marketing　and　Web　strategies　that　will　push　you　up　the　rankings。　
The　business　involves　a　combination　of　math　and　marketing…a　whole　new　specialty　
created　entirely　by　the　flattening　of　the　world。　
And　always　remember：　The　Indians　and　Chinese　are　not　racing　us　to　the　bottom。　They　
are　racing　us　to　the　top…and　that　is　agoodthing！　They　wanthigher　standards　ofliving；　
not　sweatshops；　they　want　brand　names；　not　junk；　they　want　to　trade　their　motor　
scooters　for　cars　and　their　pens　and　pencils　for　computers。　And　the　more　they　do　that；　
the　higher　they　climb；　the　more　room　is　created　at　the　top…because　the　more　they　have；　
the　more　they　spend；　the　more　diverse　product　markets　become；　and　the　more　niches　
for　specialization　are　created　as　well。　

Look　at　what　is　happening　already：　As　American　companies　send　knowledge　work　to　India；　
Indian　companies　are　turning　around　and　using　their　earnings　and　insights　to　start　
inventing　new　products　that　poorer　Indians　can　use　to　lift　themselves　out　of　poverty　
into　the　middle　class；　where　they　will　surely　become　consumers　of　American　products。　
BusinessWeek　cited　the　Tata　Motors　factory；　near　Pune；　south　of　Mumbai；　〃where　a　group　
of　young　designers；　technicians；　and　marketers　pore　over　drawings　and　examine　samples　
of　steel　and　composite　plastics。　By　early　next　year；　they　plan　to　design　a　prototype　
for　Tata　Group's　most　ambitious　project　yet：　a　compact　car　that　will　sell　for　2；200。　
The　company　hopes　the　car　will　beat　out　Suzuki's　5；000　Maruti　compact　to　become　
India's　cheapest　car…and　an　export　model　for　the　rest　of　the　developing　world。　'This　
is　the　need　of　the　day　in　India…a　people's　car；'　says　Ratan　Tata；　chairman　of　the　
12。5　billion　Tata　Group。　Indians　are　increasingly　demanding　better　products　and　
services　at　an　affordable　cost。　Strong　economic　growth　this　year　will　only　enlarge　
that　demand。　The　phrase　'Made　in　India'　may　come　to　represent　low…cost　innovation　
in　the　new　global　economy〃　（October　11；　2004）。　
Raghuram　Rajan；　the　director　of　research　for　the　International　Monetary　Fund；　sits　


on　the　board　of　a　company　that　puts　Indian　students　to　work　tutoring　students　in　
Singapore。　The　students；　from　the　Indian　Institute　of　Technology　in　Madras；　go　online　
to　help　students　in　Singapore；　from　grades　six　to　twelve；　on　their　math　homework。　
They　also　help　teachers　in　Singapore　develop　lesson　plans　and　prepare　PowerPoint　
presentations　or　other　jazzy　ways　for　them　to　teach　math。　The　company；　called　
Heymath。com；　is　paid　for　by　the　schools　in　Singapore。　Cambridge　University　in　England　
is　also　part　of　this　equation；　providing　the　overall　quality　controls　and　certifying　
the　lesson　plans　and　teaching　methods。　
〃Everyone　wins；〃　saysRajan。　〃The　company　is　run　by　two　Indians　who　worked　for　Citibank　
and　CSFB　in　London　and　came　back　to　India　to　start　this　business。　。　。　Cambridge　
University　is　making　money　from　a　company　that　has　created　a　whole　new　niche。　The　
Indian　students　are　making　pocket　money。　And　the　Singapore　students　are　learning　
better。〃　Meanwhile；　the　underlying　software　is　probably　being　provided　by　Microsoft　
and　the　chips　by　Intel；　and　the　enriched　Indian　students　are　

probably　buying　cheap　personal　computers　from　Apple；　Dell；　or　HP。　But　you　can't　really　
see　any　of　this。　〃The　pie　grew；　but　no　one　saw　it；〃　said　Rajan。　
An　essay　in　the　McKinsey　Quarterly；　〃Beyond　Cheap　Labor：　Lessons　for　Developing　
Economies〃　（January　2005）；　offers　a　nice　example　of　this：　〃In　northern　Italy's　textile　
and　apparel　industry　。　。　。　the　majority　of　garment　production　has　moved　to　lower…cost　
locations；　but　employment　remains　stable　because　companies　have　put　more　resources　
into　tasks　such　as　designing　clothes　and　coordinating　global　production　networks。〃　
It　is　so　easy　to　demonize　free　markets…and　the　freedom　to　outsource　and　
offshore…because　it　is　so　much　easier　to　see　people　being　laid　off　than　being　hired。　
But　occasionally　a　newspaper　tries　to　dig　deep　into　the　issue。　My　hometown　paper；　
the　Minneapolis　Star　Tribune；　did　just　that。　It　looked　at　exactly　how　the　Minnesota　
economy　was　being　affected　by　the　flattening　of　the　world；　actually　daring　to　run　
an　article　on　September　5；　2004；　headlined；　〃Offshore　Jobs　Bring　Gains　at　Home。〃　The　
article；　date…lined　Wuxi；　China；　began　like　this：　〃Outside　the　air　is　dank；　dusty　
and　hot　as　tropical　fever。　Inside；　in　an　environment　that's　dry；　spotless　and　cool；　
hundreds　of　former　farm　laborers　covered　head　to　toe　in　suits　looking　like　something　
out　of　NASA　are　perform