the.world.is.flat-第57部分

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would　increase　at　three　times　the　rate　of　all　occupations。〃　Unfortunately；　the　NSB　
reported；　the　average　age　of　the　science　and　engineering　workforce　is　rising。　
〃Many　of　those　who　entered　the　expanding　S&E　workforce　in　the　1960s　and　1970s　（the　
baby　boom　generation）　are　expected　to　retire　in　the　next　twenty　years；　and　their　
children　are　not　choosing　science　and　engineering　careers　in　the　same　numbers　as　their　
parents；〃　the　NSB　report　said。　〃The　percentage　of　women；　for　example；　choosing　math　
and　computer　science　careers　fell　4　percentage　points　between　1993　and　1999。〃　
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The　2002　NSB　indicators　showed　that　the　number　of　science　and　engineering　Ph。D。's　
awarded　in　the　United　States　dropped　from　29；000　in　1998　to　27；000　in　1999。　The　total　
number　of　engineering　undergraduates　in　America　fell　about　12　percent　between　the　


mid…1980s　and　1998。　
Nevertheless；　America's　science　and　engineering　labor　force　grew　at　a　rate　well　above　
that　of　America's　production　of　science　and　engineering　degrees；　because　a　large　
number　of　foreign…born　S&E　graduates　migrated　to　the　United　States。　The　proportion　
of　foreign…born　students　in　S&E　fields　and　workers　in　S&E　occupations　continued　to　
rise　steadily　in　the　1990s。　The　NSB　said　that　persons　born　outside　the　United　States　
accounted　for　14　percent　of　all　S&E　occupations　in　1990。　Between　1990　and　2000；　the　
proportion　of　foreign…born　people　with　bachelor's　degrees　in　S&E　occupations　rose　
from　11　to　17　percent；　the　proportion　of　foreign…born　with　master's　degrees　rose　from　
19　to　29　percent；　and　the　proportion　of　foreign…born　with　Ph。D。's　in　the　S&E　labor　
force　rose　from　24　to　38　percent。　By　attracting　scientists　and　engineers　born　and　
trained　in　other　countries　we　have　maintained　the　growth　of　the　S&Elabor　force　without　
a　commensurate　increase　in　support　for　the　long…term　costs　of　training　and　attracting　
native　U。S　citizens　to　these　fields；　the　NSB　said。　
But　now；　the　simultaneous　flattening　and　wiring　of　the　world　have　made　it　much　easier　
for　foreigners　to　innovate　without　having　to　emigrate。　They　can　now　do　world…class　
work　for　world…class　companies　at　very　decent　wages　without　ever　having　to　leave　home。　
As　Allan　E。　Goodman；　president　of　the　Institute　of　International　Education；　put　it；　
〃When　the　world　was　round；　they　could　not　go　back　home；　because　there　was　no　lab　to　
go　back　to　and　no　Internet　to　connect　to。　But　now　all　those　things　are　there；　so　they　
are　going　back。　Now　they　are　saying；　'I　feel　more　comfortable　back　home。　I　can　live　
more　comfortably　back　home　than　in　New　York　City　and　I　can　do　good　work；　so　why　not　
go　back？'〃　This　trend　started　even　before　the　visa　hassles　brought　on　by　9/11；　said　
Goodman。　〃The　brain　gain　started　to　go　to　brain　drain　around　the　year　2000。〃　
As　the　NSB　study　noted；　〃Since　the　1980s　other　countries　have　increased　investment　
in　S&E　education　and　the　S&E　workforce　at　higher　rates　than　the　United　States　has。　
Between　1993　and　1997；　the　OECD　countries　＇Organization　for　Economic　Co…operation　
and　Development；　

a　group　of　40　nations　with　highly　developed　market　economies＇　increased　their　number　
of　S&E　research　jobs　23　percent；　more　than　twice　the　11　percent　increase　in　S&E　
research　jobs　in　the　United　States。〃　
In　addition；　it　said；　visas　for　students　and　S&E　workers　have　been　issued　more　slowly　
since　the　events　of　September　11；　owing　to　both　increased　security　restrictions　and　
a　drop　in　applications。　The　U。S。　State　Department　issued　20　percent　fewer　visas　for　
foreign　students　in　2001　than　in　2000；　and　the　rate　fell　farther　in　subsequent　years。　
While　university　presidents　told　me　in　2004　that　the　situation　was　getting　better；　
and　that　the　Department　of　Homeland　Security　was　trying　to　both　speed　up　and　simplify　
its　visa　procedures　for　foreign　students　and　scientists；　a　lot　of　damage　has　been　
done；　and　the　situation　for　foreign　students　or　scientists　wanting　to　work　in　any　
areas　deemed　to　have　national　security　implications　is　becoming　a　real　problem。　No　
wonder　New　York　Times　education　writer　Sam　Dillon　reported　on　December　21；　2004；　that　
〃foreign　applications　to　American　graduate　schools　declined　28　percent　this　year。　
Actual　foreign　graduate　student　enrollments　dropped　6　percent。　Enrollments　of　all　


foreign　students；　in　undergraduate；　graduate　and　postdoctoral　programs；　fell　for　the　
first　time　in　three　decades　in　an　annual　census　released　this　fall。　Meanwhile；　
university　enrollments　have　been　surging　in　England；　Germany　and　other　countries。　。　。　
Chinese　applications　to　American　graduate　schools　fell　45　percent　this　year；　while　
several　European　countries　announced　surges　in　Chinese　enrollment。〃　
Dirty　Little　Secret　#2：　The　Ambition　Gap　
The　second　dirty　little　secret；　which　several　prominent　American　CEOs　told　me　only　
in　a　whisper；　goes　like　this：　When　they　send　jobs　abroad；　they　not　only　save　75　percent　
on　wages；　they　get　a　100　percent　increase　in　productivity。　Part　of　that　is　
understandable。　When　you　take　a　low…wage；　low…prestige　job　in　America；　like　a　call　
center　operator；　and　bring　it　over　to　India；　where　it　becomes　a　high…wage；　
high…prestige　job；　
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you　end　up　with　workers　who　are　paid　less　but　motivated　more。　〃The　dirty　little　secret　
is　that　not　only　is　＇outsourcing＇　cheaper　and　efficient；〃　the　American　CEO　of　a　
London…headquartered　multinational　told　me；　〃but　the　quality　and　productivity　＇boost＇　
is　huge。〃　In　addition　to　the　wage　compression；　he　said；　one　Bangalore　Indian　retrained　
will　do　the　work　of　two　or　three　Europeans；　and　the　Bangalore　employees　don't　take　
six　weeks　of　holidays。　〃When　you　think　it's　only　about　wages；〃　he　added；　〃you　can　
still　hold　your　dignity；　but　the　fact　that　they　work　better　is　awful。〃　
A　short　time　after　returning　from　India；　I　was　approached　in　an　airport　by　a　young　
man　who　wanted　to　talk　about　some　columns　I　had　written　from　there。　We　had　a　nice　
chat；　I　asked　him　for　his　card；　and　we　struck　up　an　e…mail　friendship。　His　name　is　
Mike　Arguello；　and　he　is　an　IT　systems　architect　living　in　San　Antonio。　He　does　
high…end　IT　systems　design　and　does　not　feel　threatened　by　foreign　competition。　He　
also　teaches　computer　science。　When　I　asked　him　what　we　needed　to　do　in　America　to　
get　our　edge　back；　he　sent　me　this　e…mail：　
I　taught　at　a　local　university。　It　was　disheartening　to　see　the　poor　work　ethic　of　
many　of　my　students。　Of　the　students　I　taught　over　six　semesters；　I'd　only　consider　
hiring　two　of　them。　The　rest　lacked　the　creativity；　problem…solving　abilities　and　
passion　for　learning。　As　you　well　know；　India's　biggest　advantage　over　the　Chinese　
and　Russians　is　that　they　speak　English。　But　it　would　be　wrong　to　assume　the　top　Indian　
developers　are　better　than　their　American　counterparts。　The　advantage　they　have　is　
the　number　of　bodies　they　can　throw　at　a　problem。　The　Indians　that　I　work　with　are　
the　cream　of　the　crop。　They　are　educated　by　the　equivalents　of　MIT　back　in　India　and　
there　are　plenty　of　them。　If　you　were　to　follow　me　in　my　daily　meetings　it　would　become　
very　obvious　that　a　great　deal　of　my　time　is　spent　working　with　Indians。　Most　managers　
are　probably　still　under　the　impression　that　all　Indians　are　doing　is　lower…end　
software　development…〃software　assembly。〃　But　technologies；　such　as　Linux；　are　
allowing　them　to　start　taking　higher…paying　system　design　jobs　that　had　previously　
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been　the　exclusive　domain　of　American　workers。　It　has　provided　them　with　the　means　
to　move　up　the　technology　food　chain；　putting　them　on　par　with　domestic　workers。　It's　
brain　power　against　brain　power；　and　in　this　area　they　are　formidable。　From　a　


technology　perspective；　the　world　is　flat　and　getting　flatter　（if　that　is　possible）。　
The　only　two　areas　that　I　have　not　seen　Indian　labor　in　are　networking　architects　
and　system　architects；　but　it　is　only　a　matter　of　time。　Indians　are　very　bright　and
they　are　quickly　learning　from　their　interaction　with　system　architects　just　how　all
of　the　pieces　of　the　IT　puzzle　fit　together　。　。　。　Were　Congress　to　pass　legislation
to　stop　the　flow　of　Indian　labor；　you　would　have　major　software　systems　that　would　
have　nobody　who　knew　what　was　going　on。　It　is　unfortunate　that　many　management　
positions　in　IT　are　filled　with　non…technical　managers　who　may　not　be　fully　aware　
of　their　exposure　。　。　。　I'm　an　expert　in　information　systems；　not　economics；　but　I　
know　a　high…paying　job　requires　one　be　able　to　produce　something　of　high　value。　The　
economy　is　producing　the　jobs　both　at　the　high　end　and　low　end；　but　increasingly　the
high…end　jobs　are　out　of　reach　of　many。　Low　education　means　low…paying　jobs；　plain　
and　simple；　and　this　is　where　more　and　more　Americans　are　finding　themselves。　Many　
Americans　can't　believe　they　aren't　qualified　for　high…paying　jobs。　I　call　this　the　
〃American　Idol　problem。〃　If　you've　ever　seen　the　reaction　of　contestants　when　Simon
Cowell　tells　them　they　have　no　talent；　they　look　at　him　in　total　disbelief。　I'm　just
hoping　someday　I'm　not　given　such　a　rude　awakening。
In　the　winter　of　2004　I　had　tea　in　Tokyo　with　Richard　C。　Koo；　chief　economist　for
the　Nomura　Research　Institute。　I　tested　out　on　Richard　my　〃coefficient　of　flatness〃：
the　notion　that　the　flatter　one's　country　is…that　is；　the　fewer　natural　resources　
it　has…the　better　off　it　will　be　in　a　flat　world。　The　ideal　country　in　a　flat　world　
is　the　one　with　no　natural　resources；　because　countries　with　no　natural　resources　
tend　to　dig　inside　themselves。　They　try　to　tap　the　energy；　entrepreneurship；
creativity；　and　intelligence　of　their　own　people…men　and　women…rather　than　drill


an　oil　well。　Taiwan　is　a　barren　rock　in　a　typhoon…laden　sea；　with　virtually　no　natural　
resources…nothing　but　the　energy；　ambition；　and　talent　of　its　own　people…and　today　
it　has　the　third…largest　financial　reserves　in　the　world。　The　success　of　Hong　Kong；
Japan；　South　Korea；　and　coastal　China　can　all　be　traced　to　a　similar　flatness。
〃I　am　a　Taiwanese…American　with　a　father　from　Taiwan　and　with　a　Japanese　mother；〃　
Koo　told　me。　〃I　was　bom　in　Japan　and　went　to　Japanese　elementary　school　and　then　moved
to　the　States。　There　is　a　saying　in　China　that　whatever　you　put　in　your　hea