the.world.is.flat-第69部分

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


315　
try　and　that　private　enterprises；　and　even　government；　have　the　competitive　incentive　
and　flexibility　to　adopt　those　new　ideas　and　turn　them　into　jobs　and　products。　This　
is　why　the　nonglobalizing　countries；　those　that　refused　to　do　any　reform　
wholesale…North　Korea；　for　instance…　actually　saw　their　per　capita　GDP　growth　shrink　
in　the　1990s；　while　countries　that　moved　from　a　more　socialist　model　to　a　globalizing　
model　saw　their　per　capita　GDP　grow　in　the　1990s。　As　David　Dollar　and　Art　Kray　conclude　
in　their　book　Trade；　Growth；　and　Poverty；　economic　growth　and　trade　remain　the　best　
antipoverty　program　in　the　world。　
The　World　Bank　reported　that　in　1990　there　were　roughly　375　million　people　in　China　
living　in　extreme　poverty；　on　less　than　　1　per　day。　By　2001；　there　were　212　million　


Chinese　living　in　extreme　poverty；　and　by　2015；　if　current　trends　hold；　there　will　
be　only　16　million　living　on　less　than　1　a　day。　In　South　Asia…primarily　India；　
Pakistan；　and　Bangladesh…the　numbers　go　from　462　million　in　1990　living　on　less　than　
1　a　day　down　to　431　million　by　2001　and　down　to　216　million　in　2015。　In　sub…Saharan　
Africa；　by　contrast；　where　globalization　has　been　slow　to　take　hold；　there　were　227　
million　people　living　on　less　than　1　a　day　in　1990；　313　million　in　2001；　and　an　
expected　340　million　by　2015。　
The　problem　for　any　globalizing　country　lies　in　thinking　you　can　stop　with　reform　
wholesale。　In　the　1990s；　some　countries　thought　that　if　you　got　your　ten　commandments　
of　reform　wholesale　right…thou　shall　privatize　state…owned　industries；　thou　shall　
deregulate　utilities；　thou　shall　lower　tariffs　and　encourage　export　industries；　
etc。…you　had　a　successful　development　strategy。　But　as　the　world　started　to　get　
smaller　and　flatter…enabling　China　to　compete　everywhere　with　everyone　on　a　broad　
range　of　manufactured　products；　enabling　India　to　export　its　brainpower　everywhere；　
enabling　corporations　to　outsource　any　task　anywhere；　and　enabling　individuals　to　
compete　globally　as　never　before　…reform　wholesale　was　no　longer　sufficient　to　keep　
countries　on　a　sustainable　growth　path。　
A　deeper　process　of　reform　was　required…a　process　I　would　call　reform　retail。　

I　Can　Only　Get　It　for　You　Retail　
What　if　regions　of　the　world　were　like　the　neighborhoods　of　a　city？　What　would　the　
world　look　like？　I'd　describe　it　like　this：　Western　Europe　would　be　an　assisted…living　
facility；　with　an　aging　population　lavishly　attended　to　by　Turkish　nurses。　The　United　
States　would　be　a　gated　community；　with　a　metal　detector　at　the　front　gate　and　a　lot　
of　people　sitting　in　their　front　yards　complaining　about　how　lazy　everyone　else　was；　
even　though　out　back　there　was　a　small　opening　in　the　fence　for　Mexican　labor　and　
other　energetic　immigrants　who　helped　to　make　the　gated　community　function。　Latin　
America　would　be　the　fun　part　of　town；　the　club　district；　where　the　workday　doesn't　
begin　until　ten　p。m。　and　everyone　sleeps　until　midmorning。　It's　definitely　the　place　
to　hang　out；　but　in　between　the　clubs；　you　don't　see　a　lot　of　new　businesses　opening　
up；　except　on　the　street　where　the　Chileans　live。　The　landlords　in　this　neighborhood　
almost　never　reinvest　their　profits　here；　but　keep　them　in　a　bank　across　town。　The　
Arab　street　would　be　a　dark　alley　where　outsiders　fear　to　tread；　except　for　a　few　
side　streets　called　Dubai；　Jordan；　Bahrain；　Qatar；　and　Morocco。　The　only　new　
businesses　are　gas　stations；　whose　owners；　like　the　elites　in　the　Latin　neighborhood；　
rarely　reinvest　their　funds　in　the　neighborhood。　Many　people　on　the　Arab　street　have　
their　curtains　closed；　their　shutters　drawn；　and　signs　on　their　front　lawn　that　say；　
〃No　Trespassing。　Beware　of　Dog。〃　India；　China；　and　East　Asia　would　be　〃the　other　side　
of　the　tracks。〃　Their　neighborhood　is　a　big　teeming　market；　made　up　of　small　shops　
and　one…room　factories；　interspersed　with　Stanley　Kaplan　SAT　prep　schools　and　
engineering　colleges。　Nobody　ever　sleeps　in　this　neighborhood；　everyone　lives　in　
extended　families；　and　everyone　is　working　and　saving　to　get　to　〃the　right　side　of　
the　tracks。〃　On　the　Chinese　streets；　there's　no　rule　of　law；　but　the　roads　are　all　
well　paved；there　are　no　potholes；　and　the　streetlights　all　work。　Onthe　Indian　streets；　


by　contrast；　no　one　ever　repairs　the　streetlights；　the　roads　are　full　of　ruts；　but　
the　police　are　sticklers　for　the　rules。　You　need　a　license　to　open　a　lemonade　stand　
on　the　Indian　streets。　Luckily；　the　local　cops　can　be　bribed；　and　the　successful　
entrepreneurs　all　have　their　own　generators　to　run　their　factories　and　the　latest　
cell　phones　to　get　
317　
around　the　fact　that　the　local　telephone　poles　are　all　down。　Africa；　sadly；　is　that　
part　of　town　where　the　businesses　are　boarded　up；　life　expectancy　is　declining；　and　
the　only　new　buildings　are　health…care　clinics。　
The　point　here　is　that　every　region　of　the　world　has　its　strengths　and　weaknesses；　
and　all　are　in　need　of　reform　retail　to　some　degree。　What　is　reform　retail？　In　the　
simplest　terms；　it　is　more　than　just　opening　your　country　to　foreign　trade　and　
investment　and　making　a　few　macroeco…nomic　policy　changes　from　the　top。　That　is　reform　
wholesale。　Reform　retail　presumes　you　have　already　done　reform　wholesale。　It　involves　
looking　at　four　key　aspects　of　your　society…infrastructure；　regulatory　institutions；　
education；　and　culture　（the　general　way　your　country　and　leaders　relate　to　the　
world）…and　upgrading　each　one　to　remove　as　many　friction　points　as　possible。　The　idea　
of　reform　retail　is　to　enable　the　greatest　number　of　your　people　to　have　the　best　
legal　and　institutional　framework　within　which　to　innovate；　start　companies；　and　
become　attractive　partners　for　those　who　want　to　collaborate　with　them　from　elsewhere　
in　the　world。　
Many　of　the　key　elements　of　reform　retail　were　best　defined　by　the　research　done　by　
the　World　Bank's　International　Finance　Corporation　（IFC）　and　its　economic　analysis　
team　led　by　its　chief　economist；　Michael　Klein。　What　do　we　learn　from　their　work？　
To　begin　with；　you　don't　grow　your　country　out　of　poverty　by　guaranteeing　everyone　
a　job。　Egypt　guarantees　all　college　graduates　a　job　each　year；　and　it　has　been　mired　
in　poverty　with　a　slow…growing　economy　for　fifty　years。　
〃If　it　were　just　a　matter　of　the　number　of　jobs；　solutions　would　be　easy；〃　note　Klein　
and　Bita　Hadjimichael　in　their　World　Bank　Study；　The　Private　Sector　in　Development。　
〃For　example；　state…owned　enterprises　could　absorb　all　those　in　need　of　employment。　
The　real　issue　is　not　just　employment；　but　increasingly　productive　employment　that　
allows　living　standards　to　rise。〃　State…owned　enterprises　and　state…subsidized　
private　firms　usuallyhave　not　delivered　sustainable　productivity　growth；　and　neither　
have　a　lot　of　other　approaches　that　people　assume　are　elixirs　of　growth；　they　add。　
Just　attracting　more　foreign　investment　into　a　country　also　doesn't　automatically　
do　it。　And　even　massive　investments　in　education　won't　guarantee　it。　
318　
〃Productivity　growth　and；　hence；　the　way　out　of　poverty；　is　not　simply　a　matter　of　
throwing　resources　at　the　problem；〃　say　Klein　and　Hadjimichael。　〃More　important；　it　
is　a　matter　of　using　resources　well。〃　In　other　words；　countries　grow　out　of　poverty　
not　only　when　they　manage　their　fiscal　and　monetary　policies　responsibly　from　above；　
i。e。；　reform　wholesale。　They　grow　out　of　poverty　when　they　also　create　an　environment　
below　that　makes　it　very　easy　for　their　people　to　start　businesses；　raise　capital；　
and　become　entrepreneurs；　and　when　they　subject　their　people　to　at　least　some　


competition　from　beyond…because　companies　and　countries　with　competitors　always　
innovate　more　and　faster。　
The　IFC　drove　home　this　point　with　a　comprehensive　study　of　more　than　130　countries；　
called　Doing　Business　in　2004。　The　IFC　asked　five　basic　questions　about　doing　business　
in　each　of　these　countries；　questions　about　how　easy　or　difficult　it　is　to　1）　start　
a　business　in　terms　of　local　rules；　regulations；　and　license　fees；　2）　hire　and　fire　
workers；　3）　enforce　a　contract；　4）　get　credit；　and　5）　close　a　business　that　goes　
bankrupt　or　is　failing。　To　translate　it　into　my　own　lexicon；　those　countries　that　
make　all　these　things　relatively　simple　and　friction…free　have　undertaken　reform　
retail；　and　those　that　have　not　are　stalled　in　reform　wholesale　and　are　not　likely　
to　thrive　in　a　flat　world。　The　IFC's　criteria　were　inspired　by　the　brilliant　and　
innovative　work　of　Hernando　de　Soto；　who　has　demonstrated　in　Peru　and　other　developing　
nations　that　if　you　change　the　regulatory　and　business　environment　for　the　poor；　and　
give　them　the　tools　to　collaborate；　they　will　do　the　rest。　
Doing　Business　in　2004　tries　to　explain　each　of　its　points　with　a　few　colorful　examples：　
〃Teuku；　an　entreprenuer　in　Jakarta；　wants　to　open　a　textile　factory。　He　has　customers　
lined　up；　imported　machinery；　and　a　promising　business　plan。　Teuku's　first　encounter　
with　the　government　is　when　registering　his　business。　He　gets　the　standard　forms　from　
the　Ministry　of　Justice；　and　completes　and　notarizes　them。　Teuku　proves　that　he　is　
a　local　resident　and　does　not　have　a　criminal　record。　He　obtains　a　tax　number；　applies　
for　a　business　license；　and　deposits　the　minimum　capital　（three　times　national　income　
per　capita）　in　the　bank。　He　then　publishes　the　articles　of　association　in　the　official　
gazette；　pays　a　stamp　fee；　registers　at　the　Ministry　of　Justice；　and　waits　90　days　
before　filing　for　

social　security。　One　hundred　sixty…eight　days　after　he　commences　the　process；　Teuku　
can　legally　start　operations。　In　the　meantime；　his　customers　have　contracted　with　
another　business。　
〃In　Panama；　another　entrepreneur；　Ina；　registers　her　construction　company　in　only　
19　days。　Business　is　booming　and　Ina　wants　to　hire　someone　for　a　two…year　appointment。　
But　the　employment　law　only　allows　fixed…term　appointments　for　specific　tasks；　and　
even　then　requires　a　maximum　term　of　one　year。　At　the　same　time；　one　of　her　current　
workers　often　leaves　early；　with　no　excuse；　and　makes　costly　mistakes。　To　replace　
him；　Ina　needs　to　notify　and　get　approval　from　the　union；　and　pay　f