the.world.is.flat-第73部分

按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！


that　China　has　become　the　hare　and　Mexico　has　not；　even　though　Mexico　seemed　to　start　
with　so　many　more　natural　advantages　when　the　world　went　flat。　Why？　
This　is　a　question　Mexicans　themselves　are　asking。　When　you　go　to　Mexico　City　these　
days；　Mexicans　will　tell　you　that　they　are　hearing　that　
332　
〃giant　sucking　sound〃　in　stereo。　〃We　are　caught　between　India　and　China；〃　Jorge　
Castaneda；　Mexico's　former　foreign　minister；　told　me　in　2004。　〃It　is　very　difficult　
for　us　to　compete　with　the　Chinese；　except　with　high…value…added　industries。　Where　
we　should　be　competing；　the　services　area；　we　are　hit　by　the　Indians　with　their　back　
offices　and　call　centers。〃　
No　doubt　China　is　benefiting　to　some　degree　from　the　fact　that　it　still　has　an　
authoritarian　system　that　can　steamroll　vested　interests　and　archaic　practices。　
Beijing's　leadership　can　order　many　reforms　from　the　top　down；　whether　it　is　a　new　
road　or　accession　to　the　World　Trade　Organization。　But　China　today　also　has　better　
intangibles…an　ability　to　summon　and　focus　local　energies　on　reform　retail。　China　
may　be　an　authoritarian　state；　but　it　nevertheless　has　strong　state　institutions　and　
a　bureaucracy　that　manages　to　promote　a　lot　of　people　on　merit　to　key　decision…making　


positions；　and　it　has　a　certain　public…spiritedness。　The　Mandarin　tradition　of　
promoting　bureaucrats　who　see　their　role　as　promoting　and　protecting　the　interests　
of　the　state　is　still　alive　and　well　in　China。　〃China　has　a　tradition　of　meritocracy…a　
tradition　that　is　also　carried　on　in　Korea　and　Japan；〃　said　Francis　Fukuyama；　author　
of　the　classic　The　End　of　History　and　the　Last　Man。　〃All　of　them　also　have　a　basic　
sense　of'stateness'　where　＇public　servants＇　are　expected　to　look　to　the　long…term　
interests　of　the　state〃　and　are　rewarded　by　the　system　for　doing　so。　
Mexico；　by　contrast；　moved　during　the　1990s　from　a　basically　one…party　authoritarian　
state　to　a　multiparty　democracy。　So　just　when　Mexico　needs　to　summon　all　its　will　
and　energy　for　reform　retail　on　the　micro　level；　it　has　to　go　through　the　much　slower；　
albeit　more　legitimate；　democratic　process　of　constituency　building。　In　other　words；　
any　Mexican　president　who　wants　to　make　changes　has　to　aggregate　so　many　more　interest　
groups…like　herding　cats…to　implement　a　reform　than　his　autocratic　predecessors；　who　
could　have　done　it　by　fiat。　A　lot　of　these　interest　groups；　whether　unions　or　oligarchs；　
have　powerful　vested　interests　in　the　status　quo　and　the　power　to　strangle　reforms。　
And　Mexico's　state　system；　like　that　of　so　many　of　its　Latin　American　neighbors；　has　
a　long　history　of　simply　being　an　instrument　of　patronage　for　the　ruling　party　or　
local　interests；　not　the　national　interest。　
Another　of　these　intangible　things　is　how　much　your　culture　prizes　

education。　India　and　China　both　have　a　long　tradition　of　parents　telling　their　
children　that　the　greatest　thing　they　can　be　in　life　is　an　engineer　or　a　doctor。　But　
building　the　schools　to　make　that　happen　in　Mexico　simply　has　not　been　done。　India　
and　China　each　have　more　than　fifty　thousand　students　studying　in　the　United　States　
today。　They　come　from　about　twelve　time　zones　away。　Mexico；　which　is　smaller　but　right　
next　door；　has　only　about　ten　thousand。　Mexico　is　also　right　next　door　to　the　world's　
biggest　economy；　which　speaks　English。　But　Mexico　has　not　launched　any　crash　program　
in　English　education　or　invested　in　scholarships　to　send　large　numbers　of　Mexican　
students　to　the　United　States　to　study。　There　is　a　〃disconnect；〃　said　President　
Zedillo；　among　Mexico's　political　establishment；　the　challenges　of　globalization；　
and　the　degree　to　which　anyone　is　educating　and　harnessing　the　Mexican　public　to　this　
task。　You　would　have　to　look　a　long　time　for　a　graduate　science　or　math　program　at　
an　American　university　that　is　dominated　by　Mexican　students　the　way　most　are　
dominated　by　Chinese　and　Indian　students。　
The　government　of　President　Vicente　Fox　had　set　out　five　areas　for　reform　retail　to　
make　the　Mexican　economy　more　productive　and　flexible：　labor　market　reform　to　make　
it　easier　to　hire　and　fire　workers；　judicial　reform　to　make　Mexico's　courts　less　
corrupt　and　capricious；　electoral　and　constitutional　reform　to　rationalize　politics；　
tax　collection　reform　to　increase　the　country's　dismal　tax　harvest；　and　energy　reform　
to　open　the　energy　and　electricity　markets　to　foreign　investors　so　that　Mexico；　a　
major　oil　producer；　gets　out　of　the　crazy　bind　of　importing　some　natural　gas　and　
gasoline　from　America。　But　almost　all　of　these　initiatives　got　stalled　in　the　Mexican　
parliament。　
It　would　be　easy　to　conclude　from　just　looking　at　Mexico　and　China　that　democracy　


may　be　a　hindrance　to　reform　retail。　I　think　it　is　premature　to　conclude　that。　I　think　
the　real　issue　is　leadership。　There　are　democracies　that　are　blessed　with　leaders　
who　are　able　to　make　the　sale　and　get　their　people　focused　on　reform　retail…Margaret　
Thatcher　in　England　comes　to　mind…and　there　are　democracies　that　drift　for　a　long　
time　without　biting　the　bullet…modern　Germany；　for　example。　There　are　autocracies　
that　really　get　focused…modern　China…and　there　are　others　that　just　drift　aimlessly；　
unwilling　really　to　summon　their　people　
334　
because　the　leaders　are　so　illegitimate　they　are　afraid　of　inflicting　any　
pain…Zimbabwe。　
Mexico　and　Latin　America　generally　have　〃fantastic　potential；〃　says　President　Zedillo。　
〃Latin　America　was　ahead　of　everyone　thirty　years　ago；　but　for　twenty…five　years　we　
have　been　basically　stagnant　and　the　others　are　moving　closer　and　well　ahead。　Our　
political　systems　are　not　capable　of　processing　and　adopting　and　executing　those　
＇reform　retail＇　ideas。　We　are　still　discussing　prehistory。　Things　that　are　taken　for　
granted　everywhere　we　are　still　discussing　as　if　we　are　living　in　the　1960s。　To　this　
day　you　cannot　speak　openly　about　a　market　economy　in　Latin　America。〃　China　is　moving　
every　month；　added　Zedillo；　〃and　we　are　taking　years　and　years　to　decide　on　elementary　
reforms　whose　needs　should　be　strikingly　urgent　for　any　human　being。　We　are　not　
competitive　because　we　don't　have　infrastructure；　you　need　people　to　pay　taxes。　How　
many　new　highways　have　been　built　connecting　Mexico　with　the　U。S。　since　NAFTA？　
＇Virtually　none。＇　Many　people　who　would　benefit　from　government　expenditure　don't　
pay　taxes。　The　only　way　for　government　to　serve　is　get　people　to　pay　higher　taxes；　
＇but＇　then　the　populism　comes　up　and　kills　it。〃　
A　Mexican　newspaper　recently　ran　a　story　abouthow　theConverse　shoe　company　was　making　
tennis　shoes　in　China　using　Mexican　glue。　〃The　whole　article　was　about　why　are　we　
giving　them　our　glue；〃　said　Zedillo；　〃when　the　right　attitude　would　be　how　much　more　
glue　can　we　sell　them？　We　still　need　to　break　some　mental　barriers。〃　
It　is　not　that　Mexico　has　failed　to　modernize　its　export　industries。　It　is　losing　
ground　to　China　primarily　because　China　has　changed　even　faster　and　more　broadly；　
particularly　in　educating　knowledge　workers。　As　business　consultant　Daniel　H。　Rosen　
pointed　out　in　an　essay　in　The　International　Economy　journal　（Spring　2003）；　Mexico　
and　China　both　saw　their　share　of　global　exports　grow　in　many　of　the　same　areas　during　
the　booming　1990s…from　auto　parts　to　electronics　to　toys　and　sporting　goods…but　
China's　share　was　growing　faster。　This　was　not　just　because　of　what　China　was　doing　
right　but　because　of　what　Mexico　was　doing　wrong；　which　was　not　steadily　honing　its　
competitiveness　with　micro…reforms。　What　Mexico　succeeded　in　doing　was　creating　
islands　of　competitiveness；　like　Monterrey；　where　it　got　things　right　and　could　take　
335　
advantage　of　proximity　to　the　United　States；　but　the　Mexican　government　never　had　
a　strategy　for　melting　those　islands　into　the　rest　of　the　country。　This　helps　explain　
why　from　1996　to　2002；　Mexico's　ranking　in　the　Global　Competitiveness　Report　actually　
fell　while　China's　rose。　And　this　was　not　just　about　cheap　wages；　said　Rosen。　It　was　
about　China's　advantages　in　education；　privatization；　infrastructure；　quality　


control；　mid…level　management；　and　the　introduction　of　new　technology。　
〃So　China　is　eating　Mexico's　lunch；〃　concluded　Rosen；　〃but　more　due　to　the　Mexican　
inability　to　capitalize　on　successes　and　induce　broader　reform　than　to　China's　lower　
wage　workers　per　se。〃　In　other　words；　it's　reform　retail；　stupid。　According　to　the　
Doing　Business　in　200S　report；　it　takes　an　average　of　fifty…eight　days　to　start　a　
business　in　Mexico；　compared　with　eight　in　Singapore　and　nine　in　Turkey。　It　takes　
seventy…four　days　to　register　a　property　in　Mexico；　but　only　twelve　in　the　United　
States。　Mexico's　corporate　income　tax　rate　of　34　percent　is　twice　as　high　as　China's。　
The　McKinsey　Quarterly　report　〃Beyond　Cheap　Labor〃　noted　that　since　2000；　as　China　
joined　the　WTO　and　started　to　take　advantage　of　the　flattening　of　the　world；　Mexico　
lost　270；000　assembly　jobs；　and　hundreds　of　factories　closed。　But　the　main　advice　
the　report　had　for　Mexico　and　other　middle…income　countries　feeling　squeezed　by　China　
was　this：　〃Rather　than　fixating　on　jobs　lost　to　China；　these　countries　should　remember　
a　fact　of　economic　life：　no　place　can　remain　the　world's　low…cost　producer　
forever…even　China　will　lose　that　title　one　day。　Instead　of　trying　to　defend　low…wage　
assembly　jobs；　Mexico　and　other　middle…income　countries　should　focus　on　creating　jobs　
that　add　higher　value。　Only　if　more　productive　companies　with　higher…value…added　
activities　replace　less　productive　ones　can　middle　income　economies　continue　down　
the　development　path。〃　
In　short；　the　only　way　for　Mexico　to　thrive　is　with　a　strategy　of　reform　retail　that　
will　enable　it　to　beat　China　to　the　top；　not　the　bottom；　because　China　is　not　focused　
on　beating　Mexico　as　much　as　it　is　on　beating　America。　But　winning　that　kind　of　race　
to　the　top　takes　intangible　focus　and　will。　
You　cannot　maintain　rising　standards　of　living　in　a　flattening　world　

when　you　are　up　against　competitors　who　are　getting　not　only　their　fundamentals　right　
but　also　their　intangibles。　China　does　not　just　want　to　get　rich。　It　wants　to　get　
powerful。　China　doesn't