the.world.is.flat-第89部分

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killed　humanity　as　a　whole；　has　been　turned　into　a　global　message　of　hate　and　a　
universal　war　cry　。　。　。　We　cannot　clear　our　names　unless　we　own　up　to　the　shameful　
fact　that　terrorism　has　become　an　Islamic　enterprise；　an　almost　exclusive　monopoly；　
implemented　by　Muslim　men　and　women。　We　cannot　redeem　our　extremist　youth；　who　commit　
all　these　heinous　crimes；　without　confronting　the　Sheikhs　who　thought　it　ennobling　
to　reinvent　themselves　as　revolutionary　ideologues；　sending　other　people's　sons　and　
daughters　to　certain　death；　while　sending　their　own　children　to　European　and　American　
schools　and　colleges。〃　
407　
Too　Many　Toyotas　
The　problems　of　the　too　sick；　the　too　disempowered；　and　the　too　humiliated　are　all　
in　their　own　ways　keeping　the　world　from　becoming　entirely　flat。　They　may　do　so　even　
more　in　the　future；　if　they　are　not　properly　addressed。　But　another　barrier　to　the　
flattening　of　the　world　is　emerging；　one　that　is　not　a　human　constraint　but　a　natural　
resource　constraint。　If　millions　of　people　from　India；　China；　Latin　America；　and　the　
former　Soviet　Empire　who　were　living　largely　outside　the　flat　world　all　start　to　walk　
onto　the　flat　world　playing　field　at　once…and　all　come　with　their　own　dream　of　owning　
a　car；　a　house；　a　refrigerator；　a　microwave；　and　a　toaster…we　are　going　to　experience　
either　a　serious　energy　shortage　or；　worse；　wars　over　energy　that　would　have　a　
profoundly　unflattening　effect　on　the　world。　


As　I　mentioned　earlier；　I　visited　Beijing　in　the　summer　of2004　with　my　wife　and　teenage　
daughter；　Natalie。　Before　we　left；　I　said　to　Natalie；　〃You're　really　going　to　like　
this　city。　They　have　these　big　bicycle　lanes　on　all　the　main　roads。　Maybe　when　we　
get　there　we　can　rent　bikes　and　just　ride　around　Beijing。　I　did　that　last　time　I　was　
there；　and　it　was　a　lot　of　fun。〃　
Silly　Tom。　I　hadn't　been　to　Beijing　in　three　years；　and　just　in　that　brief　period　
of　time　the　explosive　growth　there　had　wiped　out　many　of　those　charming　bicycle　lanes。　
They　had　been　either　shrunken　or　eliminated　to　add　another　lane　for　automobiles　and　
buses。　The　only　biking　I　did　there　was　on　the　stationary　exercise　bike　in　our　hotel；　
which　was　a　good　antidote　for　having　to　spend　so　much　time　sitting　in　cars　stuck　in　
Beijing　traffic　jams。　I　was　in　Beijing　to　attend　an　international　business　conference；　
and　while　there　I　discovered　why　all　the　bikes　had　disappeared。　According　to　one　
speaker　at　the　conference；　some　thirty　thousand　new　cars　were　being　added　to　the　roads　
in　Beijing　every　month…one　thousand　new　cars　a　day！　I　found　that　statistic　so　
unbelievable　that　I　asked　Michael　Zhao；　a　young　researcher　in　the　Times's　Beijing　
bureau；　to　double…check　it；　and　he　wrote　me　back　the　following　e…mail：　
Hi　Tom；　Hope　this　email　finds　you　well。　On　your　question　about　how　many　cars　are　added　
each　day　in　Beijing；　I　did　some　research　

on　the　Internet　and　found　that。　。　。　car　sales　in　＇Beijing＇　for　April　2004　were　43；000　
…24。1％　more　than　same　period　lastyear。　So　that　is　1；433　cars　added　＇daily＇　to　Beijing；　
but　including　secondhand　car　sales。　New　car　sales　this　month　were　30；000；　or　1；000　
cars　each　day　added　to　the　city。　The　total　car　sales　from　Jan。　to　April　2004　were　
165；000；　that　is　about　1；375　cars　added　each　day　to　Beijing　over　this　period。　This　
data　is　from　the　Beijing　Municipal　Bureau　of　Commerce。　The　city's　bureau　of　statistics　
has　it　that　the　total　car　sales　in　2003　were　407；649；　or　1；117　cars　each　day　added。　
The　new　car　sales　last　year　were　292；858；　or　802　new　cars　each　day　。　。。　The　total　
number　of　cars　in　Beijing　is　2。1　million　。　。　。　But　the　recent　months　seem　to　have　
witnessed　surging　sales。　Also　noteworthy　is　last　year's　SARS　outbreak；　during　which　
period　a　lot　of　families　bought　cars；　due　to　panic　about　public　contact　and　a　sort　
of　doomsday…stimulated　enjoy…life　mentality。　And　many　new　car　owners　did　enjoy　their　
time　driving；　as　the　traffic　in　the　city　so　much　improved　with　a　lot　of　people　
voluntarily　caged　at　home；　without　daring　to　go　out。　Since　then；　coupled　with　dropping　
car　prices　due　to　China's　commitment　to　reduce　tariffs　after　joining　the　WTO；　a　large　
number　of　families　have　advanced　their　timetable　of　buying　a　car；　although　some　others　
decided　to　wait　for　further　drops　of　prices。　All　the　best；　Michael。　
As　Michael's　note　indicated；　you　can　see　China's　middle　class　rising　right　before　
your　eyes；　and　it　is　going　to　have　enormous　energy　and　environmental　spillover。　The　
Great　Chinese　Dream；　like　the　Great　Indian　Dream；　the　Great　Russian　Dream；　and　the　
Great　American　Dream；　is　built　around　a　high…energy；　high…electricity；　
high…bent…metal　lifestyle。　To　put　it　another　way；　the　thirty　thousand　new　cars　a　month　
in　Beijing；　and　the　cloud　of　haze　that　envelops　the　city　on　so　many　days；　and　the　
fact　that　the　city's　official　Web　site　actually　keeps　track　of　〃blue　sky〃　days　all　
testify　to　the　environmental　destruction　that　could　arise　from　the　triple　


convergence…if　clean　alternative　renewable　energies　are　not　developed　soon。　Already；　
according　to　the　World　Bank；　sixteen　of　the　twenty　most　polluted　cities　in　the　world　
are　in　China；　and　that　pollution　and　environ409　
mental　degradation　together　cost　China　170　billion　a　year　（The　Economist；　August　
21；　2004）。　
And　we　have　not　seen　anything　yet。　China；　with　its　own　oil　and　gas　reserves；　was　once　
a　net　exporter。　Not　anymore。　In　2003　China　surged　ahead　of　Japan　as　the　second　largest　
importer　of　oil　in　the　world；　after　the　United　States。　Right　now　about　700　to　800　
million　of　China's　1。3　billion　people　live　in　the　countryside；　but　they　are　heading　
for　the　flat　world；　and　roughly　half　are　expected　to　try　to　migrate　to　the　cities　
over　the　next　two　decades；　if　they　can　find　work。　This　will　spur　a　huge　surge　in　demand　
for　cars；　houses；　steel　beams；　power　plants；　school　buildings；　sewage　plants；　
electricity　grids…the　energy　implications　of　which　are　unprecedented　in　the　history　
of　Planet　Earth；　round　or　flat。　
At　the　business　conference　I　was　attending　in　Beijing；　I　kept　hearing　references　to　
the　Strait　of　Malacca…the　narrow　passage　between　Malaysia　and　Indonesia　that　is　
patrolled　by　the　U。S。　Navy　and　controls　all　the　oil　tanker　traffic　from　the　Middle　
East　to　China　and　Japan。　I　hadn't　heard　anyone　talking　about　the　Strait　of　Malacca　
since　the　1970s　oil　crises。　But　evidently　Chinese　strategic　planners　have　begun　to　
grow　increasingly　concerned　that　the　United　States　could　choke　off　China's　economy　
at　any　time　by　just　closing　the　Strait　of　Malacca；　and　this　threat　is　now　being　
increasingly　and　openly　discussed　in　Chinese　military　circles。　It　is　just　a　small　
hint　of　the　potential　struggle　for　power…energy　power…that　could　ensue　if　the　Great　
American　Dream　and　the　Great　Chinese　Dream　and　the　Great　Indian　Dream　and　the　Great　
Russian　Dream　come　to　be　seen　as　mutually　exclusive　in　energy　terms。　
China's　foreign　policy　today　consists　of　two　things：　preventing　Taiwan　from　becoming　
independent　and　searching　for　oil。　China　is　now　obsessed　with　acquiring　secure　oil　
supplies　from　countries　that　would　not　retaliate　against　China　if　it　invaded　Taiwan；　
and　this　is　driving　China　to　get　cozy　with　some　of　the　worst　regimes　in　the　world。　
The　Islamic　fundamentalist　government　in　Sudan　now　supplies　China　with　7　percent　of　
its　oil　supplies　and　China　has　invested　3　billion　in　oil　drilling　infrastructure　
there。　
In　September　2004；　China　threatened　to　veto　a　move　by　the　United　Nations　to　impose　
sanctions　on　Sudan　for　the　genocide　that　it　is　perpetrat410　
ing　in　its　Darfur　province。　China　followed　by　opposing　any　move　to　refer　Iran's　obvious　
attempts　todevelop　nuclear…weapons…grade　fuelto　the　United　Nations　Security　Council。　
Iran　supplies　13　percent　of　China's　oil　supplies。　Meanwhile；　as　the　Daily　Telegraph　
reported　（November　19；　2004）；　China　has　begun　drilling　for　gas　in　the　East　China　Sea；　
just　west　of　the　line　that　Japan　regards　as　its　border：　〃Japan　protested；　to　no　avail；　
that　the　project　should　be　a　joint　one。　The　two　are　also　set　to　clash　over　Russia's　
oil　wealth。　China　is　furious　that　Japan　has　outbid　it　in　their　battle　to　determine　
the　route　of　the　pipeline　that　Russia　intends　to　build　to　the　Far　East。〃　At　the　same　


time　it　was　reported　that　a　Chinese　nuclear　submarine　had　accidentally　strayed　into　
Japanese　territorial　waters。　The　Chinese　government　apologized　for　the　〃technical　
error。〃　If　you　believe　that；　I　have　an　oil　well　in　Hawaii　I　would　like　to　sell　you　。。。　
In　2004；　China　began　competing　with　the　United　States　for　oil　exploration　
opportunities　in　Canada　and　Venezuela。　If　China　has　its　way；　it　will　stick　a　straw　
into　Canada　and　Venezuela　and　suck　out　every　drop　of　oil；　which　will　have　the　side　
effect　of　making　America　more　dependent　on　Saudi　Arabia。　
I　interviewed　the　Japanese　manager　of　a　major　U。S。　multinational　that　was　
headquartered　in　Dalian；　in　northeastern　China。　〃China　is　following　the　path　of　Japan　
and　Korea；〃　said　the　executive；　on　the　condition　that　he　and　his　company　not　be　quoted　
by　name；　〃and　the　big　question　is；　Can　the　world　afford　to　have　1。3　billion　people　
following　that　path　and　driving　the　same　cars　and　using　the　same　amount　of　energy？　
So　I　see　the　flattening；　but　the　challenge　of　the　twenty…first　century　is；　Are　we　
going　to　hit　another　oil　crisis？　The　oil　crisis　in　the　1970s　coincided　with　Japan　
and　Europe　rising。　＇There　was　a　time＇　when　the　U。S。　was　the　only　big　consumer　of　oil；　
but　when　Japan　and　Europe　came　in；　OPEC　got　the　power。　But　when　China　and　India　come　
into　being　the　consumers；　it　will　be　a　huge　challenge　that　is　an　order　of　magnitude　
different。　It　is　megapolitics。　The　limits　of　growth　in　the　1970s　were　overcome　with　
technology。　We　got　smarter　than　before；　equipment　became　more　efficient；　and　energy　
consumption　per　head　was　lower。　But　now　＇with　China；　India；　and　Russia　all　coming　
on　strong＇　it　is　multiplied　by　a　factor　of　ten。　There　is　something　

we　really　need　to　be　serious　about。　We　cannot　restrict　China；　＇Russia；＇　and　India。　
They　will　grow　and　they　must　grow。〃　
One　thing　we　will　not　be　able　to　do　is　tell　young　Indians；　Russians；　Poles；　or　Chinese　
that　just　whe