the.world.is.flat-第92部分

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Arches　Theory　of　Conflict　Prevention。　The　Golden　Arches　Theory　stipulated　that　when　
a　country　reached　the　level　of　economic　development　where　it　had　a　middle　class　big　
enough　to　support　a　network　of　McDonald's；　it　became　a　McDonald's　country。　And　people　
in　McDonald's　countries　didn't　like　to　fight　wars　anymore。　They　preferred　to　wait　
in　line　for　burgers。　While　this　was　offered　slightly　tongue　in　cheek；　the　serious　
point　I　was　trying　to　make　was　that　as　countries　got　woven　into　the　fabric　of　global　
trade　and　rising　living　standards；　which　having　a　network　of　McDonald's　franchises　
had　come　to　symbolize；　the　cost　of　war　for　victor　and　vanquished　became　prohibitively　
high。　
This　McDonald's　theory　has　held　up　pretty　well；　but　now　that　almost　every　country　
has　acquired　a　McDonald's；　except　the　worst　rogues　like　North　Korea；　Iran；　and　Iraq　
under　Saddam　Hussein；　it　seemed　to　me　that　this　theory　needed　updating　for　the　flat　
world。　In　that　spirit；　and　again　with　tongue　slightly　in　cheek；　I　offer　the　Dell　Theory　
of　Conflict　Prevention；　the　essence　of　which　is　that　the　advent　and　spread　of　
just…in…time　global　supply　chains　in　the　flat　world　are　an　even　greater　restraint　
on　geopolitical　adventurism　than　the　more　general　rising　standard　of　living　that　
McDonald's　symbolized。　
421　
The　Dell　Theory　stipulates：　No　two　countries　that　are　both　part　of　a　major　global　
supply　chain；　like　Dell's；　will　ever　fight　a　war　against　each　other　as　long　as　they　
are　both　part　of　the　same　global　supply　chain。　Because　people　embedded　in　major　global　
supply　chains　don't　want　to　fight　old…time　wars　anymore。　They　want　to　make　
just…in…time　deliveries　of　goods　


and　services　…and　enjoy　the　rising　standards　of　living　that　come　with　that。　One　of　
the　people　with　the　best　feel　for　the　logic　behind　this　theory　is　Michael　Dell；　the　
founder　and　chairman　of　Dell。　
〃These　countries　understand　the　risk　premium　that　they　have；〃　said　Dell　of　the　
countries　in　his　Asian　supply　chain。　〃They　are　pretty　careful　to　protect　the　equity　
that　they　have　built　up　or　tell　us　why　we　should　not　worry　＇about　their　doing　anything　
adventurous＇。　My　belief　after　visiting　China　is　that　the　change　that　has　occurred　
there　is　in　the　best　interest　of　the　world　and　China。　Once　people　get　a　taste　for　
whatever　you　want　to　call　it…economic　independence；　a　better　lifestyle；　and　a　better　
life　for　their　child　or　children…they　grab　on　to　that　and　don't　want　to　give　it　up。〃　
Any　sort　of　war　or　prolonged　political　upheaval　in　East　Asia　or　China　〃would　have　
a　massive　chilling　effect　on　the　investment　there　and　on　all　the　progress　that　has　
been　made　there；〃　said　Dell；　who　added　that　he　believes　the　governments　in　that　part　
of　the　world　understand　this　very　clearly。　〃We　certainly　make　clear　to　them　that　
stability　is　important　to　us。　＇Right　now＇　it　is　not　a　day…to…day　worry　for　us　。。。　
I　believe　that　as　time　and　progress　go　on　there；　the　chance　for　a　really　disruptive　
event　goes　down　exponentially。　I　don't　think　our　industry　gets　enough　credit　for　the　
good　we　are　doing　in　these　areas。　If　you　are　making　money　and　being　productive　and　
raising　your　standard　of　living；　you're　not　sitting　around　thinking；　Who　did　this　
to　us？　or　Why　is　our　life　so　bad？〃　
There　is　a　lot　of　truth　to　this。　Countries　whose　workers　and　industries　are　woven　
into　a　major　global　supply　chain　know　that　they　cannot　take　an　hour；　a　week；　or　a　
month　off　for　war　without　disrupting　industries　and　economies　around　the　world　and　
thereby　risking　the　loss　of　their　place　in　that　supply　chain　for　a　long　time；　which　
could　be　extremely　costly。　For　a　country　with　no　natural　resources；　being　part　of　
a　global　supply　chain　is　like　striking　oil…oil　that　never　runs　out。　And　therefore；　
getting　dropped　from　such　a　chain　because　you　start　a　war　is　like　having　your　oil　
wells　go　

dry　or　having　someone　pour　cement　down　them。　They　will　not　come　back　anytime　soon。　
〃You　are　going　to　pay　for　it　really　dearly；〃　said　Glenn　E。　Neland；　senior　vice　
president　for　worldwide　procurement　at　Dell；　when　I　asked　him　what　would　happen　to　
a　major　supply…chain　member　in　Asia　that　decided　to　start　fighting　with　its　neighbor　
and　disrupt　the　supply　chain。　〃It　will　not　only　bring　you　to　your　knees　＇today＇；　but　
you　will　pay　for　a　long　time…because　you　just　won't　have　any　credibility　if　you　
demonstrate　you　are　going　to　go　＇off＇　the　political　deep　end。　And　China　is　just　now　
starting　to　develop　a　level　of　credibility　in　the　business　community　that　it　is　
creating　a　business　environment　you　can　prosper　in…with　transparent　and　consistent　
rules。〃　Neland　said　that　suppliers　regularly　ask　him　whether　he　is　worried　about　China　
and　Taiwan；　which　have　threatened　to　go　to　war　at　several　points　in　the　past　half　
century；　but　his　standard　response　is　that　he　cannot　imagine　them　〃doing　anything　
more　than　flexing　muscles　with　each　other。〃　Neland　said　he　can　tell　in　his　
conversations　and　dealings　with　companies　and　governments　in　the　Dell　supply　chain；　
particularly　the　Chinese；　that　〃they　recognize　the　opportunity　and　are　really　hungry　


to　participate　in　the　same　things　they　have　seen　other　countries　in　Asia　do。　They　
know　there　is　a　big　economic　pot　at　the　end　of　the　rainbow　and　they　are　really　after　
it。　We　will　spend　about　35　billion　producing　parts　this　year；　and　30　percent　of　that　
is　＇in＇　China。〃　
If　you　follow　the　evolution　of　supply　chains；　added　Neland；　you　see　the　prosperity　
and　stability　they　promoted　first　in　Japan；　and　then　in　Korea　and　Taiwan；　and　now　
in　Malaysia；　Singapore；　the　Philippines；　Thailand；　and　Indonesia。　Once　countries　get　
embedded　in　these　global　supply　chains；　〃they　feel　part　of　something　much　bigger　than　
their　own　businesses；〃　he　said。　Osamu　Watanabe；　the　CEO　of　the　Japan　External　Trade　
Organization　（JETRO）；　was　explaining　to　me　one　afternoon　in　Tokyo　how　Japanese　
companies　were　moving　vast　amounts　of　low…and　middle…range　technical　work　and　
manufacturing　to　China；　doing　the　basic　fabrication　there；　and　then　bringing　it　back　
to　Japan　for　final　assembly。　Japan　was　doing　this　despite　a　bitter　legacy　of　mistrust　
between　the　two　countries；　which　was　intensified　by　the　Japanese　invasion　of　China　
in　the　last　century。　Historically；　he　noted；　a　strong　Japan　and　a　strong　

China　have　had　a　hard　time　coexisting。　But　not　today；　at　least　not　for　the　moment。　
Why　not？　I　asked。　The　reason　you　can　have　a　strong　Japan　and　a　strong　China　at　the　
same　time；　he　said；　〃is　because　of　the　supply　chain。〃　It　is　a　win…win　for　both。　
Obviously；　since　Iraq；　Syria；　south　Lebanon；　North　Korea；　Pakistan；　Afghanistan；　and　
Iran　are　not　part　of　any　major　global　supply　chains；　all　of　them　remain　hot　spots　
that　could　explode　at　any　time　and　slow　or　reverse　the　flattening　of　the　world。　As　
my　own　notebook　story　attests；　the　most　important　test　case　of　the　Dell　Theory　of　
Conflict　Prevention　is　the　situation　between　China　and　Taiwan…since　both　are　deeply　
embedded　in　several　of　the　world's　most　important　computer；　consumer　electronics；　
and；　increasingly；　software　supply　chains。　The　vast　majority　of　computer　components　
for　every　major　company　comes　from　coastal　China；　Taiwan；　and　East　Asia。　In　addition；　
Taiwan　alone　has　more　than　100　billion　in　investments　in　mainland　China　today；　and　
Taiwanese　experts　run　many　of　the　cutting…edge　Chinese　high…tech　manufacturing　
companies。　
It　is　no　wonder　that　Craig　Addison；　the　former　editor　of　Electronic　Business　Asia　
magazine；　wrote　an　essay　for　the　International　Herald　Tribune　（September　29；　2000）；　
headlined　〃A　'Silicon　Shield'　Protects　Taiwan　from　China。〃　He　argued　that　
〃Silicon…based　products；　such　as　computers　and　networking　systems；　form　the　basis　
of　the　digital　economies　in　the　United　States；　Japan　and　other　developed　nations。　
In　the　past　decade；　Taiwan　has　become　the　third…largest　information　technology　
hardware　producer　after　the　United　States　and　Japan。　Military　aggression　by　China　
against　Taiwan　would　cut　off　a　large　portion　of　the　world's　supply　of　these　
products　。　。　。　Such　a　development　would　wipe　trillions　of　dollars　off　the　market　value　
of　technology　companies　listed　in　the　United　States；　Japan　and　Europe。〃　Even　if　
China's　leaders；　like　former　president　Jiang　Zemin；　who　was　once　minister　of　
electronics；　lose　sight　of　how　integrated　China　and　Taiwan　are　in　the　world's　computer　
supply　chain；　they　need　only　ask　their　kids　for　an　update。　Jiang　Zemin's　son；　Jiang　
Mianheng；　wrote　Addison；　〃is　a　partner　in　a　wafer　fabrication　project　in　Shanghai　


with　Winston　Wang　of　Taiwan's　Grace　T。H。W。　Group。〃　And　it　is　not　just　Taiwanese。　
Hundreds　of　big　American　tech　companies　now　have　R　&　D　operations　in　China；　a　war　
that　disrupted　them　could　
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lead　not　only　to　the　companies　moving　their　plants　elsewhere　but　also　to　a　significant　
loss　of　R　&　D　investment　in　China；　which　the　Beijing　government　has　been　betting　on　
to　advance　its　development。　Such　a　war　could　also；　depending　on　how　it　started；　trigger　
a　widespread　American　boycott　of　Chinese　goods…if　China　were　to　snuff　out　the　
Taiwanese　democracy…which　would　lead　to　serious　economic　turmoil　inside　China。　
The　Dell　Theory　had　its　first　real　test　in　December　2004；　when　Taiwan　held　
parliamentary　elections。　President　Chen　Shui…bian's　pro…independence　Democratic　
Progressive　Party　was　expected　to　win　the　legislative　runoff　over　the　main　opposition　
Nationalist　Party；　which　favored　closer　ties　with　Beijing。　Chen　framed　the　election　
as　a　popular　referendum　on　hisproposal　to　write　anew　constitution　that　would　formally　
enshrine　Taiwan's　independence；　ending　the　purposely　ambiguous　status　quo。　Had　Chen　
won　and　moved　ahead　on　his　agenda　to　make　Taiwan　its　own　motherland；　as　opposed　to　
maintaining　the　status　quo　fiction　that　it　is　a　province　of　the　mainland；　it　could　
have　led　to　a　Chinese　military　assault　on　Taiwan。　Everyone　in　the　region　was　holding　
his　or　her　breath。　And　what　happened？　Motherboards　won　over　motherland。　A　majority　
of　Taiwanese　voted　against　the　pro…independence　governing　party　legislative　
candidates；　ensuring　that　the　DPP　would　not　have　a　majority　in　parliament。　I　believe　
the　message　Taiwanese　voters　we