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will perhaps still be objected; why I have not spoke more particularly of 

affairs at home; or of the success of our armies abroad; which I might; and 

could very largely have done; but those in power have wisely discouraged 

men from meddling in publick concerns; and I was resolv'd by no means 

to   give   the   least   offence。   This   I   will   venture   to   say;   That   it   will   be   a 

glorious campaign for the allies; wherein the English forces; both by sea 

and   land;   will   have   their   full   share   of   honour:   That   her   Majesty   Queen 

Anne will continue in health and prosperity: And that no ill accident will 

arrive to any of the chief ministry。 

     As to the particular events I have mention'd; the readers may judge by 

the fulfilling of 'em; whether I am on the level with common astrologers; 

who; with an old paultry cant; and a few pothook for planets; to amuse the 

vulgar; have; in my opinion; too long been suffer'd to abuse the world: But 

an honest physician ought not to be despis'd; because there are such things 

as mountebanks。 I hope I have some share of reputation; which I would 

not willingly forfeit for a frolick or humour: And I believe no gentleman; 

who reads   this paper;  will look   upon it to be of the   same cast   or   mould 

with the common scribblers that are every day hawk'd about。 My fortune 

has placed me above the little regard of scribbling for a few pence; which I 

neither value or want: Therefore let no wise men too hastily condemn this 

essay; intended for a good design; to cultivate and improve an ancient art; 



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long in disgrace; by having fallen into mean and unskilful hands。 A little 

time will determine whether I have deceived others or myself: and I think 

it is no very unreasonable request; that men would please to suspend their 

judgments till then。 I was once of the opinion with those who despise all 

predictions from the stars; till the year 1686; a man of quality shew'd me; 

written in his album; That the most learned astronomer; Captain H。 assured 

him; he would never believe any thing of the stars' influence; if there were 

not a great revolution in England in the year 1688。 Since that time I began 

to    have    other   thoughts;     and   after   eighteen     years    diligent   study    and 

application; I think I have no reason to repent of my pains。 I shall detain 

the reader no longer; than to let him know; that the account I design to give 

of   next   year's   events;   shall   take   in   the   principal   affairs   that   happen   in 

Europe; and if I be denied the liberty of offering it to my own country; I 

shall   appeal   to   the   learned   world;   by   publishing   it   in   Latin;   and   giving 

order            to          have            it         printed           in          Holland。 

______________________________________________ 

     The     Accomplishment         of   the  First   of  Mr    Bickerstaff's     Predictions; 

being an account of the death of Mr Partridge; the almanack…maker; upon 

the 29th instant。 

     In a letter to a person of honour Written in the year 1708 

     My Lord; 

     In   obedience  to   your   Lordship's   commands;  as   well as to satisfy  my 

own      curiosity;   I   have    for  some     days    past   enquired     constantly     after 

Partridge       the   almanack…maker;          of   whom       it  was     foretold    in   Mr。 

Bickerstaff's predictions; publish'd about a month ago; that he should die 

on the 29th instant about eleven at night of a raging fever。 I had some sort 

of   knowledge   of   him   when   I   was   employ'd   in   the   Revenue;   because   he 

used     every    year   to   present    me    with   his   almanack;      as  he   did   other 

gentlemen; upon the score of some little gratuity we gave him。 I saw him 

accidentally once or twice about ten days before he died; and observed he 

began   very   much   to   droop   and   languish;   tho'   I   hear   his   friends   did   not 

seem   to   apprehend   him   in   any   danger。 About   two   or   three   days   ago   he 

grew ill; and was confin'd first to his chamber; and in a few hours after to 

his   bed;   where   Dr。   Case   and   Mrs。   Kirleus   were   sent   for   to   visit;   and   to 



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prescribe to him。 Upon this intelligence I sent thrice every day one servant 

or   other    to  enquire    after   his  health;   and    yesterday;    about    four   in  the 

afternoon; word   was brought   me that he   was past hopes: Upon   which;  I 

prevailed with myself to go and see him; partly out of commiseration; and 

I confess; partly out of curiosity。 He knew me very well; seem'd surpriz'd 

at   my   condescension;   and   made   me   compliments   upon   it   as   well   as   he 

could; in the condition he was。 The people about him said; he had been for 

some time delirious; but when I saw him; he had his understanding as well 

as    ever   I  knew;    and    spake    strong    and    hearty;   without     any   seeming 

uneasiness or constraint。 After I told him how sorry I was to see him in 

those melancholy circumstances; and said some other civilities; suitable to 

the occasion; I desired him to tell me freely and ingeniously; whether the 

predictions Mr。 Bickerstaff had publish'd relating to his death; had not too 

much affected and worked on his imagination。 He confess'd he had often 

had it in his head; but never with much apprehension; till about a fortnight 

before; since which time it had the perpetual possession of his mind and 

thoughts;   and      he  did   verily   believe    was   the   true   natural   cause    of  his 

present distemper: For; said he; I am thoroughly persuaded; and I think I 

have   very   good   reasons;  that   Mr。   Bickerstaff   spoke   altogether   by   guess; 

and knew no more what will happen this year than I did myself。 I told him 

his   discourse   surprized   me;   and   I   would   be   glad   he   were   in   a   state   of 

health   to   be   able   to   tell   me   what   reason   he   had   to   be   convinc'd   of   Mr。 

Bickerstaff's ignorance。 He reply'd; I am a poor ignorant fellow; bred to a 

mean      trade;   yet   I  have   sense    enough     to   know     that  all  pretences     of 

foretelling by astrology are deceits; for this manifest reason; because the 

wise and the   learned;  who   can   only  know  whether   there be   any  truth   in 

this science; do all unanimously agree to laugh at and despise it; and none 

but the poor ignorant vulgar give it any credit; and that only upon the word 

of such silly wretches as I and my fellows; who can hardly write or read。 I 

then asked him why he had not calculated his own nativity; to see whether 

it   agreed   with   Bickerstaff's   prediction?   at   which   he   shook   his   head;   and 

said; Oh! sir; this is no time for jesting; but for repenting those fooleries; 

as I do now from the very bottom of my heart。 By what I can gather from 

you;    said   I;  the   observations      and   predictions     you    printed;   with    your 



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almanacks;   were   mere   impositions   on   the   people。   He   reply'd;   if   it   were 

otherwise I should have the less to answer for。 We have a common form 

for all those  things;  as  to   foretelling   the  weather;  we  never  meddle  with 

that; but leave it to the printer; who takes it out of any old almanack; as he 

thinks   fit;   the   rest   was   my   own   invention;   to   make   my   almanack   sell; 

having a wife to maintain; and no other way to get my bread; for mending 

old shoes is a poor livelihood; and; (added he; sighing) I wish I may not 

have   done   more   mischief   by   my   physick   than   my   astrology;   tho'   I   had 

some good receipts from my grandmother; and my own compositions were 

such as I thought could at least do no hurt。 

     I had some other discourse with him; which now I cannot call to mind; 

and    I  fear   I  have   already    tired  your    Lordship。     I  shall  only   add   one 

circumstance; That on his death…bed he declared himself a Nonconformist; 

and had a fanatick preacher to be his spiritual guide。 After half an hour's 

conversation   I   took   my   leave;   being   half   stifled   by   the   closeness   of   the 

room。 I imagine he could not hold out long; and therefore withdrew to a 

little coffee…house hard by; leaving a servant at the house with orders to 

come   immediately;   and   tell   me;   as   near   as   he   could;   the   minute   when 

Partridge   should      expire;   which    was   not   above   two   hours   after;    when; 

looking upon my watch; I found it to be above five minutes after seven; by 

which it is clear that Mr。 Bickerstaff was mistaken almost four hours in his 

calculation。 In the other circumstances he was exact enough。 But whether 

he has not been the cause of this poor man's death; as well as the predictor; 

may be very reasonably disputed。 However; it must be confess'd the matter 

is odd enough; whether we should endeavour to account for it by chance; 

or the effect of imagination: For my own part; tho' I believe no man has 

less faith in these matters; yet I shall wait with some impatience; and not 

without      some    expectation;     the   fulfilling   of   Mr。   Bickerstaff's     second 

prediction; that the Cardinal de Noailles is to die upon the fourth of April; 

and if that should be verified as exactly as this of poor Partridge; I must 

own   I   should   be   wholly   surprized;   and

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