bickerstaff-partridge papers(比克一帕特拉奇文件)-第3部分
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will perhaps still be objected； why I have not spoke more particularly of
affairs at home； or of the success of our armies abroad； which I might； and
could very largely have done； but those in power have wisely discouraged
men from meddling in publick concerns； and I was resolv'd by no means
to give the least offence。 This I will venture to say； That it will be a
glorious campaign for the allies； wherein the English forces； both by sea
and land； will have their full share of honour： That her Majesty Queen
Anne will continue in health and prosperity： And that no ill accident will
arrive to any of the chief ministry。
As to the particular events I have mention'd； the readers may judge by
the fulfilling of 'em； whether I am on the level with common astrologers；
who； with an old paultry cant； and a few pothook for planets； to amuse the
vulgar； have； in my opinion； too long been suffer'd to abuse the world： But
an honest physician ought not to be despis'd； because there are such things
as mountebanks。 I hope I have some share of reputation； which I would
not willingly forfeit for a frolick or humour： And I believe no gentleman；
who reads this paper； will look upon it to be of the same cast or mould
with the common scribblers that are every day hawk'd about。 My fortune
has placed me above the little regard of scribbling for a few pence； which I
neither value or want： Therefore let no wise men too hastily condemn this
essay； intended for a good design； to cultivate and improve an ancient art；
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long in disgrace； by having fallen into mean and unskilful hands。 A little
time will determine whether I have deceived others or myself： and I think
it is no very unreasonable request； that men would please to suspend their
judgments till then。 I was once of the opinion with those who despise all
predictions from the stars； till the year 1686； a man of quality shew'd me；
written in his album； That the most learned astronomer； Captain H。 assured
him； he would never believe any thing of the stars' influence； if there were
not a great revolution in England in the year 1688。 Since that time I began
to have other thoughts； and after eighteen years diligent study and
application； I think I have no reason to repent of my pains。 I shall detain
the reader no longer； than to let him know； that the account I design to give
of next year's events； shall take in the principal affairs that happen in
Europe； and if I be denied the liberty of offering it to my own country； I
shall appeal to the learned world； by publishing it in Latin； and giving
order to have it printed in Holland。
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The Accomplishment of the First of Mr Bickerstaff's Predictions；
being an account of the death of Mr Partridge； the almanack…maker； upon
the 29th instant。
In a letter to a person of honour Written in the year 1708
My Lord；
In obedience to your Lordship's commands； as well as to satisfy my
own curiosity； I have for some days past enquired constantly after
Partridge the almanack…maker； of whom it was foretold in Mr。
Bickerstaff's predictions； publish'd about a month ago； that he should die
on the 29th instant about eleven at night of a raging fever。 I had some sort
of knowledge of him when I was employ'd in the Revenue； because he
used every year to present me with his almanack； as he did other
gentlemen； upon the score of some little gratuity we gave him。 I saw him
accidentally once or twice about ten days before he died； and observed he
began very much to droop and languish； tho' I hear his friends did not
seem to apprehend him in any danger。 About two or three days ago he
grew ill； and was confin'd first to his chamber； and in a few hours after to
his bed； where Dr。 Case and Mrs。 Kirleus were sent for to visit； and to
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prescribe to him。 Upon this intelligence I sent thrice every day one servant
or other to enquire after his health； and yesterday； about four in the
afternoon； word was brought me that he was past hopes： Upon which； I
prevailed with myself to go and see him； partly out of commiseration； and
I confess； partly out of curiosity。 He knew me very well； seem'd surpriz'd
at my condescension； and made me compliments upon it as well as he
could； in the condition he was。 The people about him said； he had been for
some time delirious； but when I saw him； he had his understanding as well
as ever I knew； and spake strong and hearty； without any seeming
uneasiness or constraint。 After I told him how sorry I was to see him in
those melancholy circumstances； and said some other civilities； suitable to
the occasion； I desired him to tell me freely and ingeniously； whether the
predictions Mr。 Bickerstaff had publish'd relating to his death； had not too
much affected and worked on his imagination。 He confess'd he had often
had it in his head； but never with much apprehension； till about a fortnight
before； since which time it had the perpetual possession of his mind and
thoughts； and he did verily believe was the true natural cause of his
present distemper： For； said he； I am thoroughly persuaded； and I think I
have very good reasons； that Mr。 Bickerstaff spoke altogether by guess；
and knew no more what will happen this year than I did myself。 I told him
his discourse surprized me； and I would be glad he were in a state of
health to be able to tell me what reason he had to be convinc'd of Mr。
Bickerstaff's ignorance。 He reply'd； I am a poor ignorant fellow； bred to a
mean trade； yet I have sense enough to know that all pretences of
foretelling by astrology are deceits； for this manifest reason； because the
wise and the learned； who can only know whether there be any truth in
this science； do all unanimously agree to laugh at and despise it； and none
but the poor ignorant vulgar give it any credit； and that only upon the word
of such silly wretches as I and my fellows； who can hardly write or read。 I
then asked him why he had not calculated his own nativity； to see whether
it agreed with Bickerstaff's prediction？ at which he shook his head； and
said； Oh！ sir； this is no time for jesting； but for repenting those fooleries；
as I do now from the very bottom of my heart。 By what I can gather from
you； said I； the observations and predictions you printed； with your
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almanacks； were mere impositions on the people。 He reply'd； if it were
otherwise I should have the less to answer for。 We have a common form
for all those things； as to foretelling the weather； we never meddle with
that； but leave it to the printer； who takes it out of any old almanack； as he
thinks fit； the rest was my own invention； to make my almanack sell；
having a wife to maintain； and no other way to get my bread； for mending
old shoes is a poor livelihood； and； （added he； sighing） I wish I may not
have done more mischief by my physick than my astrology； tho' I had
some good receipts from my grandmother； and my own compositions were
such as I thought could at least do no hurt。
I had some other discourse with him； which now I cannot call to mind；
and I fear I have already tired your Lordship。 I shall only add one
circumstance； That on his death…bed he declared himself a Nonconformist；
and had a fanatick preacher to be his spiritual guide。 After half an hour's
conversation I took my leave； being half stifled by the closeness of the
room。 I imagine he could not hold out long； and therefore withdrew to a
little coffee…house hard by； leaving a servant at the house with orders to
come immediately； and tell me； as near as he could； the minute when
Partridge should expire； which was not above two hours after； when；
looking upon my watch； I found it to be above five minutes after seven； by
which it is clear that Mr。 Bickerstaff was mistaken almost four hours in his
calculation。 In the other circumstances he was exact enough。 But whether
he has not been the cause of this poor man's death； as well as the predictor；
may be very reasonably disputed。 However； it must be confess'd the matter
is odd enough； whether we should endeavour to account for it by chance；
or the effect of imagination： For my own part； tho' I believe no man has
less faith in these matters； yet I shall wait with some impatience； and not
without some expectation； the fulfilling of Mr。 Bickerstaff's second
prediction； that the Cardinal de Noailles is to die upon the fourth of April；
and if that should be verified as exactly as this of poor Partridge； I must
own I should be wholly surprized； and
