the path of empire-第33部分

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likely　to　postpone　that　sympathetic　union　of　the　whole　to　which　it　has　been　looking　forward　for　a　century。　Yet　this　country　has　not　been　unappreciative　of　the　larger　aspects　of　Pan…Americanism。　In　1899　President　McKinley　revived　Blaine's　project　and　proposed　a　Pan…American　congress。　To　popularize　this　idea；　a　Pan…American　Exposition　was　arranged　at　Buffalo　in　1901。　Here；　just　after　he　had　expounded　his　views　of　the　ties　that　might　bind　the　continents　together；　McKinley　was　assassinated。　The　idea；　however；　lived　and　in　the　same　year　a　congress　was　held　at　the　City　of　Mexico；　where　it　was　proposed　that　such　meetings　be　held　regularly。　As　a　result；　congresses　were　held　at　Rio　de　Janeiro　in　1906　and　at　Buenos　Aires　in　1910；　at　which　various　measures　of　common　utility　were　discussed　and　a　number　of　projects　were　actually　undertaken。

The　movement　of　Pan…Americanism　has　missed　achieving　the　full　hopes　of　its　supporters　owing　not　so　much　to　a　difference　of　fundamental　ideas　and　interests　as　to　suspicion　and　national　pride。　The　chief　powers　of　southern　South　AmericaArgentina；　Brazil；　and　Chilihad　by　the　end　of　the　nineteenth　century　in　large　measure　successfully　worked　out　their　own　problems。　They　resented　the　interference　of　a　power　of　alien　race　such　as　the　United　States；　and　they　suspected　its　good　intentions　in　wielding　the　〃Big　Stick；〃　especially　after　the　cavalier　treatment　which　Colombia　had　received。　They　observed　with　alarm　the　strengthening　of　the　grip　of　the　United　States　about　the　Caribbean。　United　in　a　group；　known　from　their　initials　as　the　〃A。B。C。〃　powers；　they　sought　to　assume　the　leadership　of　Latin　America；　basing　their　action；　indeed；　upon　the　fundamentals　of　the　Monroe　Doctrinethe　exclusion　of　foreign　influence　and　the　independence　of　peoples　but　with　themselves　instead　of　the　United　States　as　chief；　guardians。

Many　of　the　publicists　of　these　three　powers；　however；　doubted　their　capacity　to　walk　entirely　alone。　On　the　one　hand　they　noted　the　growing　influence　of　the　Germans　in　Brazil　and　the　indications　of　Japanese　interest　in　many　places；　and　on　the　other　they　divined　the　fundamental　sincerity　of　the　professions　of　the　United　States　and　were　anxious　to　cooperate　with　this　nation。　Not　strong　enough　to　control　the　policy　of　the　various　countries；　these　men　at　least　countered　those　chauvinists　who　urged　that　hostility　to　the　United　States　was　a　first　duty　compared　with　which　the　danger　of　non…American　interference　might　be　neglected。

Confronted　by　this　divided　attitude；　the　United　States　sought　to　win　over　but　not　to　compel。　Nothing　more　completely　met　American　views　than　that　each　power　should　maintain　for　itself　the　principles　of　the　Monroe　Doctrine　by　excluding　foreign　influences。　Beyond　that　the　United　States　sought　only　friendship；　and；　if　it　were　agreeable；　such　unity　as　should　be　mutually　advantageous。　In　1906　Elihu　Root；　the　Secretary　of　State；　made　a　tour　of　South　America　with　a　view　of　expressing　these　sentiments；　and　in　1913…1914　ex…President　Roosevelt　took　occasion；　on　the　way　to　his　Brazilian　hunting　trip；　to　assure　the　people　of　the　great　South　American　powers　that　the　〃Big　Stick〃　was　not　intended　to　intimidate　them。　Pan…American　unity　was　still；　when　President　Taft　went　out　of　office　in　1913；　an　aspiration　rather　than　a　realized　fact；　though　the　tangible　evidences　of　unity　had　vastly　multiplied　since　1898；　and　the　recurring　congresses　provided　a　basis　of　organization　upon　which　some　substantial　structure　might　be　built。

The　United　States　had　sincerely　hoped　that　Mexico；　like　the　〃A。B。C。〃　powers；　was　another　Latin　American　power　which　had　found　itself。　Of　all　it　was　certainly　the　most　friendly　and　the　most　intimate。　The　closeness　of　its　relations　with　the　United　States　is　indicated　by　the　fact　that　in　the　forty　years　between　1868　and　1908；　forty　agreements；　treaties；　and　conventions　had　been　concluded　between　the　two　countries。　Nor　was　intimacy　confined　to　the　Governments。　The　peace　arranged　by　President　Diaz　had　brought　foreign　capital　by　the　billion　to　aid　the　internal　development　of　the　country；　and　of　this　money　more　had　come　from　the　United　States　than　from　any　other　nation。　Nor　was　it　financial　aid　alone　which　had　gone　across　the　border。　There　was　but　little　American　colonization；　it　is　true；　but　business　managers；　engineers；　mine　foremen；　and　ranch　superintendents　formed　thousands　of　links　binding　the　nations　together。　The　climax　of　intimacy　seemed　reached　when；　in　1910；　a　general　treaty　of　arbitration　was　made　after　President　Taft　and　President　Diaz　had　met　at　El　Paso　on　the　Mexican　border　in　a　personal　conference。　A　personal　interview　between　the　President　of　the　United　States　and　the　chief　of　a　foreign　state　was　almost　unique　in　American　history；　owing　to　the　convention　that　the　President　should　not　depart　from　the　national　territory。

It　was；　therefore；　with　a　bitter　sense　of　disappointment　that　Americans　heard　of　the　revolution　inaugurated　in　1910　by　Francisco　Madero。　In　common　with　France；　Spain；　Great　Britain；　and　Germany；　the　United　States　was　disturbed　for　the　safety　of　the　investments　and　persons　of　its　citizens。　The　Government　was　also　concerned　because　the　points　of　first　and　most　persistent　fighting　were　where　the　various　railroads　crossed　the　American　boundary。　This　circumstance　brought　the　whole　border　within　the　range　of　disturbance。　The　Government　was　apprehensive；　too；　as　to　the　effect　of　long…continued　war　upon　territories　within　the　circle　of　its　chief　interest；　the　Caribbean　area。　Yet；　when　the　first　surprise　caused　by　the　revolution　had　passed　and　the　reason　for　the　outbreak　was　perceived；the　fact　that　the　order　and　apparent　prosperity　of　the　Diaz　regime　had　been　founded　upon　the　oppression　and　exploitation　of　the　masses；public　sympathy　in　the　United　States　went　out　to　Madero　and　his　supporters。

The　Diaz　Government　collapsed　with　surprising　suddenness。　The　resignation　of　President　Diaz　in　May；　1911；　was　accepted　as　a　proof　of　the　popular　character　and　the　success　of　the　revolution；　and　Madero；　who　was　elected　president　in　October；　was　promptly　recognized　as　the　constitutional　head　of　the　Mexican　Government。　The　revolution；　however；　aroused　the　United　States　to　the　fact　that　there　still　persisted　the　era　of　disturbance　which　it　had　hoped　was　drawing　to　a　close　in　Latin　America。　With　this　disturbing　revelation　in　mind；　Congress　took　another　step　in　the　development　of　American　policies　consequent　upon　the　Monroe　Doctrine　by　passing　an　act　authorizing　the　President；　whenever　he　should　〃find　that　in　any　American　country　conditions　of　domestic　violence　exist　which　are　promoted　by　the　use　of　arms　and　munitions　of　war　procured　from　the　United　States；〃　to　prohibit　trade　in　such　articles。　Under　this　authority；　President　Taft　promptly　forbade　the　export　of　such　articles　to　Mexico　except　to　the　Government。

Real　revolutions；　however；　seldom　result　simply　in　the　transfer　of　authority　from　one　group　to　another。　The　breaking　of　the　bonds　of　recognized　authority　releases　all　sorts　of　desires；　represented　in　the　state　by　separate　groups；　each　of　which　sees　no　reason　for　accepting　the　control　of　another。　All　seek　to　seize　the　dropped　reins。　The　inauguration　of　Madero；　therefore；　did　not　result　in　a　new　and　popular　government　but　in　continued　disturbance。　Factions　with　differing　creeds　raised　revolts　in　various　sections　of　the　country　until；　in　February；　1913；　Madero　was　overthrown　by　one　of　these　groups；　led　by　Felix　Diaz　and　General　Victoriano　Huerta；　and　representing　a　reactionary　tendency。　Madero　and　his　vice　president　Pino　Suarez　were　killed；　it　was　believed　by　order　of　Huerta；　and　on　the　27th　of　February；　in　the　City　of　Mexico；　Huerta　was　proclaimed　President。　Don　Venustiano　Carranza；　Governor　of　the　State　of　Coahuila；　straightway　denied　the　constitutionality　of　the　new　Government　and　led　a　new　revolution　under　the　banner　of　the　Constitution。

It　was　in　such　a　condition　that　President　Wilson　found　the　affairs　of　the　continent　when　he　took　office　on　March　4；　1913。　The　American　policy　in　the　Caribbean　was　well　defined　and　to　a　large　extent　in　operation。　Pan…American　sentiment　was　developing；　but　its　strength　and　direction　were　yet　to　be　determined。　Mexico　was　in　chaos；　and　upon　the　Government's　handling　of　it　would　depend　the　final　success　of　the　United　States　in　the　Caribbean　and　the　possibility　of　effecting　a　real　and　fruitful　cooperation　of　the　Americas。



CHAPTER　XVII。　World　Relationships

It　became　increasingly　evident　that　the　foreign　policy　of　the　United　States　could　not　consist　solely　of　a　Caribbean　policy；　a　Pan…American　policy；　and　a　Far　Eastern　policy；　but　that　it　must　necessarily　involve　a　world　policy。　During　the　years　after　the　Spanish　War　the　world　was　actively　discussing　peace；　but　all　the　while　war　was　in　the　air。　The　peace　devices　of　1815；　the　Holy　and　the　Quadruple　Alliances；　had　vanished。　The　world　had　ceased　to　regard　buffer　states　as　preventives　of　wars　between　the　great　nations；　although　at　the　time　few　believed　that　any　nation　would　ever　dare　to　treat　them　as　Germany　since　then　has　treated　Belgium。　The　balance　of　power　still　existed；　but　statesmen　were　ever　uncertain　as　to　whether　such　a　relation　of　states　was　really　conducive　to　peace　or　to　war。　A　concert　of　the　Great　Powers　resembling　the　Quadruple　Alliance　sought　to　regulate　such　vexing　problems　as　were　presented　by　the　Balkans　and　China；　but　their　concord　was　not　loud　enough　to　drown　the　notes　of　discord。

The　outspoken　word　of　governments　was　still　all　for　peace；　their　proposals　for　preserving。　it　were　of　two　kinds。　First；　there　was　the　time…honored　argument　that　the　best　preservative　of　peace　was　preparation　for　war。　Foremost　in　the　avowed　policies　of　the　day；　this　was　urged　by　some　who　really　believed　it；　by　some　who　hoped　for　war　and　intended　to　be　ready　for　it；　and　by　the　cynical　who　did　not　wish　for　war　but　thought　it　inevitable。　The　other　proposal　was　that　war　could　and　should　be　prevented　by　agreements　to　submit　all　differences　between　nations　to　international　tribunals　for　judgment。　In　the　United　States；　which　had　always　rejected　the　idea　of　balance　of　power；　and　which　only　in　Asia；　and　to　a　limited　degree；　assented　to　the　concert　of　powers；　one　or　the　other　of　these　two　views　was　urged　by