lectures on the industrial revolution in england-第24部分

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e　of　a　carpenter　as　a　fair　average　specimen　of　the　artisan　class。　The　necessaries　of　a　carpenter's　family　in　1839　cost　24s。　10d。　per　week；　in　1875　they　cost　29s。　But　meanwhile　the　money　wages　of　a　carpenter　had　risen　from　24s。　to　35s。　Thus　there　had　been　not　only　a　nominal　but　a　real　rise　in　his　wages。　Turning　to　the　labourer；　his　cost　of　living　was　about　15s。　In　1839；　it　was　a　little　under　15s。　In　1875。　The　articles　he　consumes　have　decreased　in　cost；　while　in　the　case　of　the　artisan　they　have　increased；　because　the　labourer　spends　a　much　larger　proportion　of　his　wages　on　bread。　The　labourer's　wages　meanwhile　have　risen　from　8s。　to　12s。　or　14s。；　in　1839　he　could　not　properly　support　himself　on　his　wages　alone。　These　facts　seem　conclusive；　but　certainty　is　difficult　from　the　very　varying　estimates　of　consumption　and　money　wages。　For　strong　proof　of　a　rise　in　agricultural　wages　we　may　take　a　particular　instance。　On　an　estate　in　Forfar　the　yearly　wages　of　a　first　ploughman　were　by　the　wages…book；　in

　1840。。。　*28　　2　0　　　　　　　1870。。。　*42　5　0　　1850。。。　　28　15　0　　　　　　　1880。。。　　48　9　0　　1860。。。　　39　　7　0

According　to　his　own　admission　the　standard　of　comfort　of　the　first　ploughman　employed　on　this　estate　in　1810　had　risen；　for　he　complained；　in　a　letter　describing　his　position；　of　his　increased　expenditure；　increased　not　because　things　were　dearer；　but　because　he　now　needed　more　of　them。　　　　　We　may　take　as　further　evidence　the　statistics　of　the　savings　of　the　working　classes；　it　is　impossible　to　get　more　than　an　approximate　estimate　of　them；　but　they　probably　amount　to　about　*130；000；000。　To　these　we　may　add　the　savings　actually　invested　in　houses。　In　Birmingham　there　are　13；000　houses　owned　by　artisans。　All　this　is　small　compared　with　the　whole　capital　of　the　country；　which；　in　1875；　was　estimated　at　*8；500；000；000　at　least；　with　an　annual　increase　of　*235；000；000　…　this　latter　sum　far　exceeding　the　total　savings　of　the　working　classes。　The　comparison　will　make　us　take　a　sober　view　of　their　improvement；　yet　the　facts　make　it　clear　that　the　working　classes　can　raise　their　position；　though　not　in　the　same　ratio　as　the　middle　classes。　Mr　Mulhall　also　estimates　that　there　is　less　inequality　between　the　two　classes　now　than　forty　years　ago。　He　calculates　that　the　average　wealth　of　a　rich　family　has　decreased　from　*28；820　to　*25；803；　or　11　per　cent。；　that　of　a　middle…class　family　has　decreased　from　*1439　to　*1005；　or　30　per　cent。；　while　that　of　a　working…class　family　has　increased　from　*44　to　*86；　or　nearly　100　per　cent。　But　without　pinning　our　faith　to　any　particular　estimate；　we　can　see　clearly　enough　that　the　facts　disprove　Ricardo's　proposition　that　no　improvement　is　possible；　and　there　are　not　wanting　some　who　think　that　the　whole　tendency　of　modern　society　is　towards　an　increasing　equality　of　condition。　　　　　Was　Ricardo　any　more　correct　in　saying　that　interest　and　profits　（between　which　he　never　clearly　distinguished）　must　fall？　As　a　matter　of　fact；　for　the　last　century　and　a　half　interest　in　England　has　been　almost　stationary；　except　during　the　great　war。　In　Walpole's　time　it　was　three　per　cent。；　during　the　war　it　doubled；　but　after　the　peace　it　dropped　to　four　per　cent。；　and　has　remained　pretty　steady　at　that　rate　ever　since。　Ricardo　thought　that　the　cost　of　the　labourer's　subsistence　would　necessarily　increase；　owing　to　the　necessity　of　cultivating　more　land；　and　as　he　would　thus　require　a　greater　share　of　the　gross　produce；　less　wealth　would　be　left　for　the　capitalist。　He　overlooked　the　fact　that　the　rate　of　interest　depends　not　merely　on　the　cost　of　labour；　but　on　the　field　of　employment　as　well。　As　civilisation　advances；　new　inventions　and　new　enterprises　create　a　fresh　demand　for　capital：　some　*700；000；000　have　been　invested　in　English　railways　alone。　No　doubt；　if　the　field　for　English　capital　were　confined　to　England；　the　rate　of　interest　might　fall；　but　Ricardo　forgot　the　possibility　of　capital　emigrating　on　a　large　scale。　Thus　Ricardo's　teaching　on　this　point　is　deficient　both　in　abstract　theory　and　as　tested　by　facts。　What　we　really　find　to　have　taken　place　is；　that　though　rent　has　risen；　there　is　good　reason　to　suppose　that　in　the　future　it　may　fall；　that　interest　has　not　fallen　much；　and　that　the　standard　of　comfort　and　the　rate　of　wages；　both　of　artisans　and　labourers…of　the　former　most　decidedly；　and　to　a　certain　extent　also　of　the　latter；　has　risen。　　　　　I　wish　next　to　examine　Mr　George's　theory　of　economic　progress。　Mr　George　is　a　disciple　of　Ricardo；　both　in　his　method　and　his　conclusions；　he　has　as　great　a　contempt　for　facts　and　verification　as　Ricardo　himself。　By　this　method　he　succeeds　in　formulating　a　law；　according　to　which；　in　the　progress　of　civilisation；　interest　and　wages　will　fall　together；　and　rents　will　rise。　Not　only　is　the　labourer　in　a　hopeless　condition；　but　the　capitalist　is　equally　doomed　to　a　stationary　or　declining　fortune。　'Rent；'　he　says；　'depends　upon　the　margin　of　cultivation；　rising　as　it　falls；　and　falling　as　it　rises。　Interest　and　wages　depend　on　the　margin　of　cultivation；　falling　as　it　falls；　and　rising　as　it　rises。'　The　returns　which　the　capitalist　obtains　for　his　capital　and　the　labourer　for　his　work　depend　on　the　returns　from　the　worst　land　cultivated；　that　is；　on　the　quality　of　land　accessible　to　capital　and　labour　without　payment　of　rent。　　　　　Now　Mr　George's　observations　are　derived　from　America；　and　what　he　has　done　is　to　generalise　a　theory；　which　is　true　of　some　parts　of　America；　but　not　of　old　countries。　His　book　seems　conclusive　enough　at　first　sight。　There　is　little　flaw　in　the　reasoning；　if　we　grant　the　premisses；　but　there　are　great　flaws　in　the　results　when　tested　by　facts。　Do　interest　and　wages　always　rise　and　fall　together？　As　an　historical　fact　they　do　not。　Between　1715　and　1760；　while　rents　（according　to　Professor　Rogers）　rose　but　slowly　（Arthur　Young　denies　that　they　rose　at　all）；　interest　fell；　and　wages　rose。　Between　1790　and　1815　rent　doubled；　interest　doubled；　wages　fell。　Between　1846　and　1882　rents　have　risen；　interest　has　been　stationary；　wages　have　risen。　Thus　in　all　these　three　periods　the　facts　contradict　Mr　George's　theory。　Rent　indeed　has　generally　risen；　but　neither　profits　nor　wages　have　steadily　fallen；　nor　have　their　variations　borne　any　constant　relation　to　one　another。　Coming　to　Mr　George's　main　position；　that　rent　constantly　tends　to　absorb　the　whole　increase　of　national　wealth；　how　does　this　look　in　the　light　of　fact？　Does　all　the　increase　of　wealth；　for　instance；　in　the　Lancashire　cotton　manufactures；　go　simply　to　raise　rents？　Evidently　not。　Wages　have　risen　owing　to　improvements　in　machinery'。　and　in　most　cases　profits　have　also　risen。　We　can　prove　by　statistics　that　in　England　the　capitalists'　wealth　has　increased　faster　than　that　of　the　landowners〃。　for　in　the　assessments　to　the　income…tax　there　has　been　a　greater　increase　under　Schedule　D；　which　comprises　the　profits　of　capitalists　and　the　earnings　of　professional　men；　than　under　Schedule　A；　which　comprises　revenues　from　land。　At　the　same　time；　Mr　George　has　made　out　a　strong　case　against　private　property　in　land　in　great　towns；　but　here　he　has　only　restated　more　forcibly　what　Adam　Smith　and　Mill　advocated；　when　they　recommended　taxes　on　ground　rents　as　the　least　objectionable　of　all　taxes。　Under　existing　conditions　the　working　people　in　great　towns　may　be　said　to　be　taxed　in　the　worst　of　ways　by　the　bad　condition　of　their　houses。　An　individual　or　a　corporation　lets　a　block　of　buildings　for　a　term　of　years；　the　lessee　sublets　it；　and　the　sub…lessee　again　for　the　third　time。　Each　class　is　here　oppressing　the　one　beneath　it；　and　the　lowest　unit　suffers　most。　This　is　why　the　problem　of　the　distribution　of　wealth　is　sure；　in　the　near　future；　to　take　the　form　of　the　question；　how　to　house　the　labourers　of　our　towns。

XIV。　The　Future　of　the　Working　Classes

　　　　I　have　thus　far　tried　to　show　that　the　material　condition　of　the　workman　is　capable　of　improvement　under　present　social　conditions。　I　wish　now　to　explain　the　causes　which　have　contributed　to　its　actual　improvement　since　1846。　The　most　prominent　of　these　causes　has　been　Free　Trade。　In　the　first　place；　Free　Trade　has　enormously　increased　the　aggregate　wealth　of　the　country；　and　therefore　increased　the　demand　for　labour；　this　is　an　indisputable　fact。　Secondly；　it　has　created　greater　steadiness　in　trade；…a　point　which　is　often　overlooked　in　discussions　of　the　subject。　Since　1846　workmen　have　been　more　regularly　employed　than　in　the　preceding　half…century。　Free　trade　in　wheat　has；　moreover；　given　us　a　more　steady　price　of　bread；　a　point　of　paramount　importance　to　the　labouring　man；　and　this　steadiness　is　continually　becoming　greater。　From　1850　to　1860　the　variation　between　the　highest　and　lowest　prices　of　wheat　was　36s。；　between　1860　and　1870　it　was　24s。；　and　in　the　last　decade　it　has　been　only　15s。　And　since　the　sum　which　the　workman　has　spent　on　bread　has　become　more　and　more　constant；　the　amount　which　he　has　had　left　to　spend　on　manufactured　produce　has　also　varied　less；　and　its　price　in　consequence　has　been　steadier。　But　why　then；　it　may　be　asked；　the　late　great　depression　of　trade　since　1877？　I　believe　the　answer　is；　because　other　countries；　to　which　we　sell　our　goods；　have　been　suffering　from　bad　harvests；　and　have　had　less　capacity　for　buying。　The　weavers　in　Lancashire　have　had　to　work　less　time　and　at　lower　wages　because　far…off　nations　have　not　been　able　to　purchase　cotton　goods；　and　the　depression　in　one　industry　has　spread　to　other　branches　of　trade。　　　　　The　greater　steadiness　of　wages　which　has　been　caused　by　Free　Trade　is　seen　even　in　trades　where　there　has　been　no　great　rise。　But　besides　the　amount　of　the　workman's　wages　per　day　we　must　take　into　consideration　the　number　of　days　in　the　year　and　hours　in　the　day；　during　which　he　works。　He　now　finds　employment　on　many　more　days　（before　1846　artisans　often　worked　only　one　or　two　days　in　the　week）；　but　each　working　day　has　fewer　hours；　so　that　his　pay　is　at　once　steadier　and　more　easily　earned。　And　hence　even　where　his　daily　wages　have　remained　nearly　the　same；　with　more　constant　employment　and　with　bread　both　cheap　and　fixed　in　price；　his　general　position　has　improved。　　　　　What　other　agencies　besides