股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第15部分

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The　morning　star；　or　morning　cross；　is。the　inverse　of　the　evening　star；　or　evening　cross。　If　the　star　candlestick。represents。a　new　low；　it's。highly　likely。that　a　bottom　has。been　reached。　However；　a　star；　or　cross；　does。not　necessarily　indicate　a　bottom。　Confirmation　of　a　bottom　es。only　with　the　pletion　of　the　three　rivers。pattern　（see　Figure　4。35）。　
Three　Soldiers　
Three　soldiers。occurs。when　there　are　three　white　or　black。candlesticks。all　moving　in　the　same　direction。　Three　white　soldiers。is。a　pattern　of　three　white　candlesticks。that　do　not　open　higher　but　consistently　close　higher。　It’snsidered　a　precursor　to　a　major　uptrend。　The　inverse；　in　which　three　consecutive　black。candlesticks。produce　declining　highs；　is。called　three　black。soldiers。（also　three　black。crows）　and　predicts。a　significant　decline。　The　Japanese　have　traditionally　considered　the　crow　to　be　an　unlucky　bird；　and　the　black。of　the　candlesticks；　corresponding　to　the　black。of　the　crows；　is　considered　bad　luck。for　the　markets；　the　beginning　of　a　decline。　

On　the　other　hand；　three　white　soldiers。appearing　in　an　uptrend　signals。resistance　to　higher　prices。　If　the　white　candlesticks。bee　progressively　smaller；　the　soldiers。are　〃at　a　dead　end〃　and　the　market　is。likely　to　peak。　
Three　Black　Crows　
Three　black。crows。is。a　classic。indication　that　a　bear　market　has　begun。　This。pattern　occurs。in　an　uptrend　when　there　are　three　consecutive　and　contiguous。（no　gaps）　black。candlesticks。　It'snsidered　to　signal　the　start　of　a　prolonged　bear　market；　but　must　occur　at　a　relatively。high　point　for　the　pattern　to　hold。　Note　also　that　if　the　first　black。candlestick。gaps。upward；　it　is。an　osaekomi　pattern　and　a　buy　signal　（see　Figure　4。36）。　
Three　White　Soldiers　
This。pattern　is　the　inverse　of　three　black。crows；　or　three　black。soldiers。　It　monly。occurs。when　prices。have　been　sliding　downward　and　the　market　is。searching　for　a　bottom。　The　three　consecutive　white　candlesticks。are　relatively　small；　but　indicate　that　the　market　is。on　better　footing　and　has。bottomed　out。　The　bottom　isnfirmed　only　if　prices。do　not　fall　below　the　first　white　candlestick。（see　Figure　4。37）。　
Three　Gaps　
As。the　name　implies；　three　gaps　is。a　series。of　three　consecutive　gaps。　Market　wisdom　says。that　in　an　uptrend　you　should　*4sell　into　three　jumps。up；n　whereas。in　a　downtrend；　you　should　〃buy　on　three　poundings〃　because　this。often　signals。a　major　trough。　Pounding　refers。to　a　selling　climax　after　the　third　gap　downward；　because　the　bears。have　sold　all　they　have　to　sell。　
When　there　is。no　overlap　between　the　first　days。and　the　second　day's。candlesticks；　the　gap　between　the　two　is。referred　to　as。a　window。　If　a　trend　is。breaking　out　of　a　holding　pattern　（moving　significantly　in　either　direction　after　a　period　of　narrow　moves）；　market　wisdom　says。to　follow　the　break。　It's。generally　easier　for　the　market　to　move　in　the　direction　of　the　break。　The　holding　pattern　will　often　close　the　window　（actively　trade　at　the　gap）；　and　it　ismon　for　prices　to　return　to　their　original　levels。　This。isnsidered　a　turning　point　in　the　market。　The　occurrence　of　three　of　these　turning　point　gaps　in　a　row　is　considered　extremely　significant　（see　Figure　4。38）。　

Three　Methods　
The　legends。of　Munehisa　Homma　（and　there　are　many）　say　that　he　had　a　third　method　he　emphasized　in　addition　to　selling　and　buying：　resting。　If　the　market　is。trading　in　a　narrow　range；　frequent　buying　and　selling　is。unlikely　to　increase　earnings。　The　more　often　you　trade；　the　higher　your　costs。（in　the　form　of　trading　missions）　and　the　more　likely　you　will　take　a　loss。　It's。important　at　these　times　to　rest—and　knowing　when　to　time　your　rests。is。just　as。important　as　knowing　when　to　time　your　buying　and　selling。　
The　three　methods。pattern　shown　in　Figure　4。39　is。the　candlestickbination　that　tells。you　to　rest。　Three　methods　is。also　referred　to　as　three　rules。and　refers。to　the　three　choices。of　selling；　buying；　or　resting。　
In　the　top　pattern　of　Figure　4。39；　an　uptrend　has。produced　a　large　white　candlestick。followed　by　harami　patterns。（either　white　or　black）。　There　is。then　the　large　white　marubozu　that　exceeds。the　previous。high　to　form　a　classic。breakout　from　a　holding　pattern。　The　small　harami　patterns。indicate　a　break。in　the　action。　The　bottom　of　the　large　white　candlestick。has。bee　a　support　line　and　the　top　a　resistance　line。　Having　broken　through　the　resistance　line；　the　pattern　appears。very　bullish；　but　the　important　thing　according　to　the　three　methods。is。to　forgo　either　buying　or　selling　until　the　price　breaks。out。　The　same　is　true　of　the　inverse　pattern。　The　bottom　pattern　in　Figure　4。39　occurs。in　a　downtrend　and　appears。to　be　bearish；　but　you　refrain　from　trading　until　the　downward　break。　

Over　a　century　has。passed　since　candlesticks。took。their　present　form。　The　fact　that　traders。still　use　techniques。that　were　pioneered　in　the　Dojima　rice　markets　is。a　testament　to　their　value　in　illustrating　the　dynamic。movements。of　price。　While　many　technical　indicators。have　been　developed　to　measure　trends；　gauge　momentum；　and　identify　price　targets；　candlesticks。serve　as。the　foundation　to　which　other　techniques。are　applied。　With　a　solid　understanding　of　candle　patterns；　you　will　find　that　you　are　able　to　use　conventional　indicators。with　more　precision　and　confidence。　From　Munehisa　Homma's。handmade　candle　charts。to　the　sophisticated　charting　software　we　now　enjoy；　candlesticksntinue　to　jump　off　the　screen　and　let　traders。truly　feel　the　rhythm　of　the　markets。　


CHAPTER。5　



Price　and　Time　

CONSTANCE　BROWN　
Price　projection　accuracy　is。possible　when　the　concept　of　confluence　is　clearly。understood。　Confluence　is。a　precise　target　zone　derived　from　multiple　price　projections　utilizing　the　natural　expansion　and　contraction　of　price　movement　found　in　all　markets。and　time　horizons。　The　results。form　a　mathematical　grid　that　allows。precise　entry　and　exit　strategies。prior　to　any　trade；　with　measurable　risk…reward　ratios。　The　concept　of　price　confluence　is。then　developed　further　to　study　confluence　targets。on　the　diagonal　and　vertical　axes。to　determine　time　projections。as。developed　by　W。D；　Gann。　Gann　accurately。timed　the　start；　magnitude；　and　duration　of　the　crash　of　1929。　
Oil　will　be　key　to　global　equity　indexes。into　the　year　2012。　These　global　equity　indexes。are　being　set　up　right　now；　allowing　us。to　use　the　current　market　data　in　November　2006　to　consider　the　implications。before　us。　
Fibonacci　Price　Targets　
To　determine　support　or　resistance　price　levels；　many　favor　the　use　of　Fibonacci　retracements。　But　this　method　of　subdividing　a　range　is。not　used　to　its。full　potential。　Basic。applications。simply　define　a　market　swing　and　subdivide　the　range　between　a　selected　price　high　and　a　price　low　into　the　ratios。0。618；　0。50；　and　0。382。　Unfortunately；　this。method　overlooks。the　fact　that　markets。have　a　natural　expansion　and　contraction　cycle。　To　traders；　this。means。their　Fibonacci　targets。will　work。in　markets。producing　equality。swings。only；　however；　they　will　fail　when　the　market　is。expanding　or　contracting　relative　to　the　range　first　selected。　
When　a　contraction　cycle　influences。a　rally　or　a　decline；　the　Fibonacci　targets。derived　from　a　major　price　high　and　low　will　be　exceeded。　In　a　contracting　cycle；　traders。are　stopped　out　by　entering　the　market　too　early；　only　to　see　the　market　reverse　and　take　off　without　them。　In　an　expansion　cycle；　the　trader's。entry　level　is。never　achieved。　The　market　reverses；　forcing　a　chase　that　increases。the　capital　risk。and　pels。the　trader　to　establish　a　smaller　position　as。the　opportunity　slips。away。　For　this。reason　many　abandon　the　use　of　Fibonacci　ratios；　they　feel　they　work。only　some　of　the　time。　In　essence；　they　are　right。　But　Fibonacci　retracements。are　not　the　problem；　it's。their　application　that　needs。to　be　changed。　
Figure　5。1　displays。the　current　monthly　continuous。futuresntract　for　crude　oil。　The　monthly　chart　shows。the　recent　market　decline　into　November　of　2006　and　raises。the　first　question：　how　far　will　this。decline　carry　the　market？　Although　sharp；　this。is。a　correction　only。if　the　scenario　into　2012　isrrect。　This。is。the　important　pullback。for　the　long…term　horizon；　therefore；　we　need　precise　targets。to　monitor。　This　can　be　done　using　multiple　Fibonacci　retracements。　
When　defining　support　for　a　correction　in　a　rallying　market；　always　start　at　the　top　and　only。then　select　a　low。　The　first　point　selected　should　be　zero。　The　first　calculation　within　the　range　below　zero　should　be　a　value　of　38。2　percent；　followed　by　50　percent　and　61。8　percent。　The　price　low　selected　at　the　bottom　of　the　range　is。100　percent。　Bloomberg　does。these　calculations　correctly；　but　TradeStation　defines　the　first　point　selected　as　100　and　reverses。the　order。　Recognizing　a　38。2　percent　and　61。8　percent　ratio　will　fall　on　the　same　price　levels。within　the　range；　it　bees。understandable　why　different　quote　vendors。have　different　opinions。about　how　this。should　be　programmed。　However；　most　vendors。force　the　user　to　remain　generic　and　take　away　the　user's。ability　to　use　the　geometric。proportions。that　develop　within　the　market's。data　swings。　Study　the　charts。in　this。chapter　and　pare　the　steps。to　your　vendor's。tools；　and　it　will　bee　clear　whether　the　vendor　is。backward。　TradeStation　doesrrect　its。logic。in　the　Fibonacci　expansion　tool。　CQC　will　draw　its　Fibonacci　levels。backward；　away　from　the　newest　data　in　your　chart。　Setting　the　default　to　extend　the　lines　across　the　entire　screen　will　fix　this。　

You　may　find　some　vendors。have　a　default　value　of　75　percent。　Turn　this。off；　as。well　as。any　other　range　offered　as　a　default。　Just　use　the　primary　three　listed。　It　doesn't　matter　whether　you　add；　subtract；　multiply；　or　divide　a　Fibonacci　value；　because　it　will　always。product　another　Fibonacci　ratio。　Therefore；　we　will。calculate　the　other　ratios。by　using　multiple　ranges。　You'll　see　how　this。bees。important　in　Figure　5。4。　
In　Figure　5。1；　the　same　price　high　is。used　for　two　different　Fibonacci　retracement　calculations　from　different　ranges。　The　lows。selected　are　internal　pivot　points。within　the　larger　swing。　Each　is。selected　for　a　reason。　Look。for　reversals。that　develop　directional　signals。such　as。key　reversals；　gaps；　and　secondary　retracements。that　begin　strong　swings。within　the　lar