股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第16部分

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　strong　swings。within　the　larger　trend。　These　internal　milestones。are　markers；　revealing　the　price　levels。the　market　is。using　to　build　future　price　swings。　There　are　discernable　mathematical　relationships。between　one　key　market　pivot　and　another　that　tie　the　pivots。together　within　all　time　horizons。　
The　important　price　levels。can　be　identified　by　starting　at　the　〃top〃　and　then　examining　each　pivot　price　low　as。a　possible　new　range。　In　Figure　5。1；　bold　lines。clarify　the　start；　end；　and　resulting　subdivisions。within　the　range。　The　01。8　ratio　bisects　50。　It　is　highlighted　with　an　arrow。　With　just　one　Fibonacci　grid　in　place；　it's。impossible　to　know　whether　the　levels。within　the　subdivided　range　are　major　or　minor　support。　
Starting　from　the　same　high；　a　second　low　is。selected；　just　under　30。　The　resulting　subdivided　range　produces。a　50　percent　retracement　near　50；　which　overlaps。the　01。8　percent　retracement　from　subdividing　the　first　range。　These　different　Fibonacci　ratios。that　overlap　form　a　（（influence　target；　which　is。major　support。　
If　this　chart　were　inverted　to　represent　a　market　in　a　downtrend；　producing　a　sharp　upward　retracement；　the　calculations。for　resistance　would　always。be　started　at　the　bottom；　and　then　price　highs。would　be　selected。　Starling　retracements　in　this。manner　allows。the　internal　swings。to　be　examined。　If　you　start　in　reverse；　you　are　always。forced　to　go　straight　to　the　market　extreme　top　or　major　bottom；　and　the　internal　dynamics。of　the　data　would　never　be　considered。　

Price　Projection　Using　Geometric　Proportion　
The　monthly　chart　for　crude　oil　futures。in　Figure　5。2　includes。a　third　range　to　the　price　low；　at　the　bottom　of　wave　2。　The　confluence　zones。that　form　define　major　support　for　this　current　decline　at　56；　50；　and　44。　However；　an　important　change　was　made　in　Figure　
5。2。　All　the　Fibonacci　ranges。start　from　a　price　high　that　truncates　the　spikes。into　the　double　top。　That's　done　to　clearly　illustrate　that　the　same　starting　point　is。always。used　for　each　range　selected；　but　the　price　high　itself　is。not　always　the　best　place　to　start。　Sometimes　it　makes。sense　to　truncate　spikes。when　the　majority　of　closing　periods。fail　to　record　a　close　within　the　range　of　the　spike。　To　simplify　the　chart；　add　a　horizontal　line　at　the　continence　zones。to　mark。major　support　targets。　The　targets。in　Figure　5。2　are　near　56；　50；　and　44。　In　practice；　it　is。important　to　be　aware　of　the　width　of　the　confluence　zone　and　not　just　a　single　value　within　the　target　range。　
A　14…period　relative　strength　index　（RSI）　indicator。was。added　to　the　bottom　of　Figure　
5。2。　An　oscillator　can　confirm　the　key　pivots。　In　this。chart　the　14…period　RSI　has。two　moving　averages。　The　averages。are　calculated　from　the　RSI；　not　from　price。　Moving　averages。serve　as。support　and　resistance　levels。for　the　indicator。　Points。P　and　Q　mark。two　momentum　extreme　lows。　Notice　the　character　of　these　momentum　lows。　Both　form　a　W　pattern　before　the　market　successfully。engages。in　a　strong　advance。　Past　character　is。nearly　always　repeated　in　the　time　frame　being　studied。　So　we　know　two　things。from　reading　points　P　and　
Q：　First；　this。market　likes。to　produce　a　plex　W；　so　we　need　not　take　the　reversal　seriously　until　it　does。　Second；　the　market　does。not　have　such　a　pattern　in　place　now。　It　can　further　be　said　this。market　may　be　oversold；　but　it　has。not　defined　a　final　bottom。　Because　the　market　is。at　56；　the　confluence　zone　under　the　market　bees。the　more　likely　target　at　50。　An　extension　would　allow　a　move　to　44；　but　just　under　this。zone　bees。the　precise　area　at　which　the　market　should　not　trade　if　the　opinion　is　correct　that　this。market　will　make　a　full　retracement　back。to　the　highs。　Knowing　where　the　market　should　not　go　gives。us。a　clearly　defined　risk…reward　ratio。　It　also　clearly　defines。a　level　at　which　the　implications。for　global　rates。and　equitiesuld　change。　For　this　reason；　the　decline　is。setting　up　the　long…term　picture　in　financial　markets。　

The　confluence　zone　defining　a　price　target　at　50　is。of　particular　interest。　If　you　find　the　Elliott　Wave　Principle　a　challenge；　this。approach　will　be　invaluable　to　you。　Notice　the　swing　low　marked　C；　or　the　bottom　of　wave　C　of　（2）。　A　box　is。now　drawn　from　this。pivot　low　up　to　the　confluence　zone　near　50。　
In　Figure　5。3；　the　box　is。moved　without　changing　its。height　to　project　an　equality　move　up　from　50。　The　box　defines。a　future　market　swing　projection　based　on　geometric　proportion。　There　are　other　geometric。proportions。that　require　close　study。　As。an　example；　the　50　level　also　marks。the　halfway　or　midpoint　between　a　range　from　the　high；　marked　iii；　and　the　low；　marked　wave　2。　This。independent　observation　about　a　geometric。proportion　does。not　depend　on　a　wave　count；　but　it　helps。us。train　the　eye　to　look。for　balance　and　proportion　within　the　chart。　The　box　high　produces。a　price　target　near　97。　Such　a　move　would　have　seriousnsequences。for　the　strong　rallies。developing　since　the　2002　or　2003　price　lows。in　global　equities。　

In　Figure　5。3。　the　RSI　has。two　formations。marked　at　points。R　and　S。　Point　R　is。subtle。　It　is。the　RSI　〃kiss〃　just　under　the　crossover　point　where　the　short　average　crosses　down　through　the　longer…period　average　of　RSI。　This。exact　junction　should　always　be　monitored　because　markets。often　produce　strong　moves。from　this。internal　momentum　signal。　At　point　S；　the　market　forms。a　choppy　top　but　breaks。down　because　the　RSI　fails。under　the　averages。again。　Do　not　look。for　divergences。alone　in　RSI；　because　there　is　a　wealth　of　information　in　the　details。　

Using　RSI　to　Define　Trend　
In　all　time　horizons；　study　the　range　traveled　in　the　RSI。　Notice　in　Figures。5。2　and　5。3　the　RSI　momentum　highs。challenge　the　80　level。　In　November　of　2006；　the　current　market　data　was。moving　RSI　toward　10。　Bull　markets。track。well　above　the　RSI　65　level；　whereas。bear　market　rallies。will　top　within　the　60　to　65　range　for　RSI。　Corrections。in　bull　markets。often　stay　above　40；　but　the　declines。in　bear　markets。will　break。down　below　the　40　level。　These　range　guidelines。apply　to　all　time　horizons。within　a　14…period　RSI。　

It　is。critical　for　the　analyst　to　let　the　market　show　where　these　levels。of　respect　form。　As　an　example；　one　market　may　use　12　as。support　and　develop　a　history　at　this。level。　Another　market　or　time　horizon　may　use　39。　Allow　a　couple　points。for　the　market　to　tell　you　more　precisely　how　it　wants。to　operate　by　reading　the　chart　from　right　to　left　closely。　More　information　can　be　found　in　my　book　Technical　Analysis。for　the　Trading　Professional　（McGraw…Hill；　1999）；　illustrations　are　included　to　help　detect　transitions。from　bull　to　bear　markets　and　vice　versa　within　RSI。　
In　Figure　5。4；　the　box　created　in　Figure　5。2　projects。an　equality　swing　from　50；　showing　a　price　target　at　97。72。　If　we　subdivide　the　box　itself　by　the　Fibonacci　retracement　tool；　we　discover　the　current　highs。fall　on　the　61。8　percent　ratio。　The　fact　that　the　market　is　respecting　the　internal　Fibonacci　ratios。within　our。box　bolsters。greatly　the　confidence　that　it　will　respect　our　target　at　97。72。　It　also　confirms　that　we　correctly。used　50　as。the　midpoint　of　the　rally。　Although　this。is。a　target；　it　does。not　imply　that　oil　will　take　a　straight　path。　

The　daily　futures。data　for　crude　oil　are　shown　in　Figure　5。5。　Using　the　same　method　demonstrated　in　the　monthly　data　to　project　a　rally　target；　we　can　define　a　midpoint　for　the　decline　developing　in　the　daily　data　to　project　a　possible　bottom。　If　you　use　Elliott　Wave　analysis；　pick。the　top　of　a　fourth　wave　within　wave　iii　down。　If　you　are　not　familiar　with　Elliott　Wave　jargon；　look　for　the　middle　swing　that's。the　strongest。　Then　draw　a　horizontal　line　across。the　screen　that　bisects。this。strong　swing　into　two　fairly　equal　proportions。above　and　below　the　data　range。　
This。particular　chart　uses。a　small　previous。fourth　wave　within　the　decline；　because　that　level　is。further　challenged　in　a　subsequent　wave　4　bounce。　Back…to…back。fourth　waves。are　always。critical　milestones。　Repeat　the　steps。to　draw　a　box　from　the　start　of　the　swing　to　the　horizontal　line；　marking　a　midpoint　within　the　decline。　Draw　a　second　box　of　the　same　size　and　move　it　so　that　the　top　of　the　box　is。at　the　midpoint　line　to　produce　an　equality　price　swing　down。　The　target　is。again　50。　This。is。the　same　target　as　the　one　derived　from　the　monthly　data　taken　from　entirely　different　pivot　levels。　Most　assuredly；　the　50　area　is。extremely　important。　Further　subdivide　the　box　by　Fibonacci　ratios。　We　find　the　current　lows　are　on　a　61。8　percent　relationship　of　the　box　height　at　56。　This。is。a　repeating　price　level　that　shows。we　have　a　confidence　in　the　price　grid　this。market　is。defining　as。support。　（Box。width　has。no　meaning　and　should　not　be　used　for　time　projections。）　The　reason　these　repeating　levels　form；　at　exact　prices。from　different　internal　data；　is。due　to　harmonic。intervals。forming　within　the　market　swings。　
The　RSI　in　Figure　5。5　provides。additional　value。　Momentum　indicators。that　have　been　normalized；　forcing　them　between　a　range　of　zero　and　one　hundred；　contribute　their　own　message　about　support　and　resistance。　Study　the　indicator's。performance　from　right　to　left　within　the　chart。　In　this。chart；　a　horizontal　band　has　been　drawn　around　the　RSI　45　level。　The　last　swing　up　in　the　indicator　near　45　produced　the　price　high　marked　wave　iv　up。　RSI　tested　the　same　area　in　August　2006；　when　the　marker　defined　wave　ii　up。　Often　RSI　movement　exhibiting　similar　amplitude　displacements　will　help　to　confirm　that　a　wave　count　is。still　in　the　same　degree。　（Waves。ii　and　iv　produced　similar　momentum　swings。to　the　same　45　level　in　Figure　5。5。）　The　asterisks。show　RSI　used　the　45　level　to　define　support　in　May；　June；　and　July　2006。　The　breakdown　and　subsequent　test　and　failure　under　this。band　was。very　significant　in　August。　When　the　resistance　zone　in　RSI　was。challenged　and　failed　in　October；　this。offered　a　warning　that　an　extension　in　the　decline　could　form；　allowing　the　target　at　56。76　to　be　realized。　When　RSI　exceeds。this。hand　at　45　in　the　daily　chart；　we　will　have　confirmation　that　wave　3　down　in　the　corrective　decline　isplete。　Wave　4　up　will　not　exceed　the　midpoint　at　66。63　if　oil　is。going　to　fall　further　toward　50　in　the　intermediate　pictur