股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第22部分
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。were written on them。 I started the pany called Safety in the Market。 in 1989 because everyone wanted to know how I was。doing my calculations。 Originally； the pany was。no great money…making idea。 But at least I was。getting my。trading organized。 The lessons。I learned from Gann's。work。were based on everything I have put into this。chapter。
If you want to get this。right； the first thing you must accept is。that there is。an order to even thing； wars； weather； politics—the lot。 But there is。no money in wars。or weather and I cannot stand politics； so I stuck to the markets。 I started to see that on one side of the markets everything seemed to revolve around 90°； 180°； and 360°。and time frames。 Everything。 You just have to look。hard enough。 I found the market was。ever expanding。 I hasten to add that I was。not always。in front of it。 But neither was。W。D。 Gann。 I found that a one…hour chart was。like a sixty…year cycle。 One hundred eighty…two days。were like 180 months； which in turn were like 180 years。 All of this。is。very relevant both to the market and to the current war cycle； as。I'll explain later。
Forecasting
The chart shown in Figure 6。1 is。the point at which I started trading in 1985。 The yearly。top came in on October 21。 That was。the day I took my first trade under my own steam。 You can see； as。I did； that a couple of the market turns。figured through Time by Degrees。worked quite well。 From the November 19； 1985； low the market ran up exactly 168 days。to May 6； 1986。 The market then did a 50 percent retracement in time by running down for eighty…three days。to July 28； 1986。 （Eighty…four days。would have been an exact 50 percent retracement； but that would have put the market out of whack。with the important dates）。 That is。when I first came across。the date of July 28； which is。one of my 〃war dates”。 The number of hours in a week。is。168。 It’s said that God made the world in six days。and on the seventh day He rested。 Six days。represent 144 hours。 Fourteen years。equal 168 months。 All of this。has。meaning in terms of minutes； hours； days； and weeks。 In any case； the market got itself back。into balance by running up 169 days till January 13； 1987。 This。was。the first major top that I had both forecast and traded。
The chart in Figure 6。2 shows。equal time frames of eighty…three days。and 201 days working in 2006 and 2007。
The chart in Figure 6。3 shows。us。Time by Degrees。working after the Crash of ‘87； which was。probably the most volatile market well ever see； I actually。raised the money to buy a new house； the first since I had gone broke in 1986； by trading into that low on February 10； 1988。 It was。one of the few times。I found trading easy。 I had picked the top in 1987 and traded it。 A few traders。and my broker were aware of this。 I used to give all of the credit to W。D。 Gann； but I was。using a lot of market smarts。that I had picked up in any。number of places。
A fair proportion was。my own； but I must give thanks。to all of the masters。who； along with Gann； came before me。 Thankfully； they left a path； which I was。able to recognize and follow。 As。can be seen in the chart in Figure 6。4； the technique is。even bit as。relevant in 2005 as。it was。in 1987。
Even after the '87 Crash there were some traders。still knocking Gann—and me； for that matter。 You might think。that people would just rejoice in their good fortune and keep trading the market。 But real life is。not that simple。 People often don't see things。that clearly— especially when things。are not all black。and white and especially when ego and emotions are involved。 But I was。learning by doing。 I had all of the cycles。for the Share Price Index； from the birth of the contract in 1983； marked on my charts； and in most cases。I knew when； where； how； and why they would repeat。 There is。no doubt that the trick。is。to identify the cycle before it happens。 A well…trained monkey on a stick。can do an adequate job of describing something after it has。happened。
A trading sequence isn't always。as。simple as。in 1987…88； but this。was。when everything came together for me。 I had not yet started writing articles。or doing presentations at that time； but traders。were beginning to look。over my shoulder and； in many cases； follow my。even move。 More than a little bit irritating were the phone calls。I’d get when I was。wrong； telling me how dumb I was。and how this。Gann stuff did not work。 When I was。right； there would be no calls。
I was。living more than well from my trading； so I decided to put a Gann article into a financial newsletter； just to prove how all this stuff worked。 I sent off a one…page article titled 〃Safety in the Market〃 to Research Technology； which was。the biggest supplier of market data in Australia at the time。 Plenty of traders。knew that I had picked various。tops。and bottoms。in the markets； but I had no real proof except for my trading statements。 I was。not publicizing my work。for the money。 In the article； which I wrote late in 1988； I decided to go out on a limb and nominate the day of the top for the Australian Share Price Index contract in 1989。 I was。willing to put myself to the test。 In the article； I explained how the yearly。top for 1988 had occurred by squaring time in price。 I have already said dial a well…trained monkey on a stick。can describe events。after they happen。 So we can put my 1988 call in that basket。 But for 1989； I said； 〃So； of course； the next question is。what is。going to happen in 1989。 I see a volatile year ahead； similar to 1988； with a major top due on October 3； with the reversal and panic。in the market。 Short positions。should be covered on about November 16 and December 18”。 This。forecast； along with some notes。on the Dow Jones Index； was published in the United States。in the February edition of the Gann and Elliott Wave magazine。 How did I do？ You can bet I did pretty well； or I would not be writing this。chapter。 The high of the year in Australia came in on October 4； 1989； at a price of exactly 1855； which was。exactly。what I had calculated twelve months。earlier。 That price was。the highest our market traded for a number of years。 It was。followed by what was。called 〃the crash of 1989；〃 not to be confused with the real Crash of 1987。 My dates。for November and December also came in very close。 By that time； I was。doing a few seminars； called 〃Safety。in the Market。。 After the low of the year came in on April 7； 1989； it reinforced my forecast top of October 4； 1989 （see Figure 6。5）。 This。was。presented to the attendees of my seminar and was。recorded on video。
My method for predicting the tops。and bottoms。was。simple and consistent with how I made my trading decisions； as。I’ve already outlined。 I don't regard either Time by Degrees or price action reaction as。a stand…alone indicator。 But as。can be seen here； when they。independently agree； there can be a window of opportunity。
My。decision was。based first on my Time by Degrees。theory。 October 4； the actual day of the top； came in 180 days。from the low of the year； April 7； 1989。 It was。also 180 weeks。from the high on April 21； 1986。 That was。the first of the double tops。and it came in at 1254。5。 It was。180 months。from the major low on September 27； 1974； which was。felt worldwide。 These time frames indicated a major change in trend。
The process。was。also based on the theory that time and price ranges。repeat。 The all…time low of our Australian Share Price Index contract came in on March 1； 1983； at a price of 458 exactly。 The first major top came in 1；162 days。later on May 6； 1986； at a price of 1255 exactly。（half a point higher than April 21； 1986； the other date in the double top）。 The market at this。time was。trading in decimal points。 So we had a time frame of 1162 days。and a price range of 1255 minus 458； which is。797 points。 The next major low； as。I've already。mentioned； occurred on July 28； 1986； at a price of 1058。 So if we are looking for a future price target；
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War and Market Cycles
Throughout this。chapter； I have made references。to wars。and their relation to Gann’s work。 I first became interested in the war cycles。after reading Gann's。1927 novel Tunnel Thai the Air； or Looking Back。From 1940； in which he wrote that the United States。was。about to be involved in an Armageddon…style war； starting in April 1930。 He described the Japanese planes。bombing the American fleet in the Pacific。as。the start of the war。 More than a decade before December 7； 1941； this。is。how he portrayed the United States。being dragged into the war：
The United States。government fearing that Japan would make the first attack。on the
Pacificast； either around Los。Angeles。or San Francisco； rushed the battle fleet to the
Pacific。 As。soon as。the battleships。cruised into the Pacific； Japan attacked from the air with the
noiseless。airplanes。and began dropping deadly bombs from great heights。 The antiaircraft guns。from the decks。of the battleships。were powerless。to reach the bombing planes。at such great heights。 Defeat was。swift and severe and only a few of the battleships。escaped plete destruction from the first attack。
His。timing was。off； but I can understand that because I know how he did his。calculations。
This。bookpelled me in 1988； sixty。years。later； to look。at the relationship between the United States。and Japan and see if this。knowledge could give me an advantage in trading。 In 1986； Tunnel Thru the Air led me to natural time because the book contained a lot of trading examples。 I found that the United States。led Japan by an exact time frame。 This。time frame varied with different situations。and industries。 For example； in the auto industry； Japan trails。the United States。by about twenty years。and Taiwan follows。Japan。 The American stock market seemed to lead its。Japanese counterpart by an approximate time frame of sixty years。 My theory was。that after the '87 Crash； when all of the markets。worldwide looked shaky； Japan still had a little more than two years。left in the bull market。 As。I was。doing my。work； the Japanese market kept defying the trend and going up。 The Japanese market topped on December 27； 1989。 Once that top was。in place； I could expect the same rundown that the United States。had experienced between 1929 and 1932。 The American mar
