jurassic.park-第15部分

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　　　　Malcolm　shrugged；　indifferent　to　Hammond's　outburst。　〃I've　brought　copies　of　my　original　paper　for　you　to　took　at；〃　he　said。　〃The　original　consultancy　paper　I　did　for　InGen。　The　mathematics　are　a　bit　sticky；　but　I　can　walk　you　through　it。　Are　you　leaving　now？〃
　　　　〃I　have　some　phone　calls　to　make；〃　Hammond　said；　and　went　into　the　adjoining　cabin。
　　　　〃Well；　it's　a　long　flight；〃　Malcolm　said　to　the　others。　〃At　least　my　paper　will　give　you　something　to　do。〃

The　plane　flew　through　the　night。
　　　　Grant　knew　that　Ian　Malcolm　had　his　share　of　detractors；　and　he　could　understand　why　some　found　his　style　too　abrasive；　and　his　applications　of　chaos　theory　too　glib。　Grant　thumbed　through　the　paper；　glancing　at　the　equations。
　　　　Gennaro　said；　〃Your　paper　concludes　that　Hammond's　island　is　bound　to　fail？〃
　　　　〃Correct。〃
　　　　〃Because　of　chaos　theory？〃
　　　　〃Correct。　To　be　more　precise；　because　of　the　behavior　of　the　system　in　phase　space。〃
　　　　Gennaro　tossed　the　paper　aside　and　said；　〃Can　you　explain　this　in　English？〃
　　　　〃Surely；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃Let's　see　where　we　have　to　start。You　know　what　a　nonlinear　equation　is？〃
　　　　〃No。〃
　　　　〃Strange　attractors？〃
　　　　〃No。〃
　　　　〃All　right；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃Let's　go　back　to　the　beginning。〃　He　paused；　staring　at　the　ceiling。　〃Physics　has　had　great　success　at　describing　certain　kinds　of　behavior：　planets　in　orbit；　spacecraft　going　to　the　moon；　pendulums　and　springs　and　rolling　balls；　that　sort　of　thing。　The　regular　movement　of　objects。　These　are　described　by　what　are　called　linear　equations；　and　mathematicians　can　solve　those　equations　easily。　We've　been　doing　it　for　hundreds　of　years。〃
　　　　〃Okay；〃　Gennaro　said。
　　　　〃But　there　is　another　kind　of　behavior；　which　physics　handles　badly。　For　example；　anything　to　do　with　turbulence。　Water　ing　out　of　a　spout。　Air　moving　over　an　airplane　wing。　Weather。　Blood　flowing　through　the　heart。　Turbulent　events　are　described　by　nonlinear　equations。　They're　bard　to　solve…in　fact；　they're　usually　impossible　to　solve。　So　physics　has　never　understood　this　whole　class　of　events。　Until　about　ten　years　ago。　The　new　theory　that　describes　them　is　called　chaos　theory。
　　　　〃Chaos　theory　originally　grew　out　of　attempts　to　make　puter　models　of　weather　in　the　1960s。　Weather　is　a　big　plicated　system；　namely　the　earth's　atmosphere　as　it　interacts　with　the　land　and　the　sun。　The　behavior　of　this　big　plicated　system　always　defied　understanding。　So　naturally　we　couldn't　predict　weather。　But　what　the　early　researchers　learned　from　puter　models　was　that；　even　if　you　could　understand　it；　you　still　couldn't　predict　it。　Weather　prediction　is　absolutely　impossible。　The　reason　is　that　the　behavior　of　the　system　is　sensitively　dependent　on　initial　conditions。〃
　　　　〃You　lost　me；〃　Gennaro　said。
　　　　use　a　cannon　to　fire　a　shell　of　a　certain　weight；　at　a　certain　speed；　and　a　certain　angle　of　inclination…and　if　I　then　fire　a　second　shell　with　almost　the　same　weight；　speed；　and　angle…what　well　happen？〃
　　　　〃The　two　shells　will　land　at　almost　the　same　spot。〃
　　　　〃Right；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃That's　linear　dynamics。〃
　　　　〃Okay。〃
　　　　〃But　if　I　have　a　weather　system　that　I　start　up　with　a　certain　temperature　and　a　certain　wind　speed　and　a　certain　humidity…and　if　I　then　repeat　it　with　almost　the　same　temperature；　wind；　and　humidity…the　second　system　will　not　behave　almost　the　same。　It'll　wander　off　and　rapidly　will　bee　very　different　from　the　first。　Thunderstorms　instead　of　sunshine。　That's　nonlinear　dynamics。　They　are　sensitive　to　initial　conditions：　tiny　differences　bee　amplified。〃
　　　　〃I　think　I　see；〃　Gennaro　said。
　　　　〃The　shorthand　is　the　'butterfly　effect。'　A　butterfly　flaps　its　wings　in　Peking；　and　weather　in　New　York　is　different。〃
　　　　〃So　chaos　is　all　just　random　and　unpredictable？〃　Gennaro　said。　〃Is　that　it？〃
　　　　〃No；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃We　actually　find　bidden　regularities　within　the　plex　variety　of　a　system's　behavior。　That's　why　chaos　has　now　bee　a　very　broad　theory　that's　used　to　study　everything　from　the　stock　market；　to　rioting　crowds；　to　brain　waves　during　epilepsy。　Any　sort　of　plex　system　where　there　is　confusion　and　unpredictability。　We　can　find　an　underlying　order。　Okay？〃
　　　　〃Okay；〃　Gennaro　said。　〃But　what　is　this　underlying　order？〃
　　　　〃It's　essentially　characterized　by　the　movement　of　the　system　within　phase　space；〃　Malcolm　said。
　　　　〃Jesus；〃　Gennaro　said。　〃All　I　want　to　know　is　why　you　think　Hammond's　island　can't　work。〃
　　　　〃I　understand；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃I'll　get　there。　Chaos　theory　says　two　things。　First；　that　plex　systems　like　weather　have　an　underlying　order。　Second；　the　reverse　of　that…that　simple　systems　can　produce　plex　behavior。　For　example；　pool　balls。　You　hit　a　pool　ball；　and　it　starts　to　carom　off　the　sides　of　the　table。　In　theory；　that's　a　fairly　simple　system；　almost　a　Newtonian　system。　Since　you　can　know　the　force　imparted　to　the　ball；　and　the　mass　of　the　ball；　and　you　can　calculate　the　angles　at　which　it　will　strike　the　walls；　you　can　predict　the　future　behavior　of　the　ball。　In　theory；　you　could　predict　the　behavior　of　the　ball　far　into　the　future；　as　it　keeps　bouncing　from　side　to　side。　You　could　predict　where　it　will　end　up　three　hours　from　now；　in　theory。〃
　　　　〃Okay。〃　Gennaro　nodded。
　　　　But　in　fact；〃　Malcolm　said；　〃it　turns　out　you　can't　predict　more　than　a　few　seconds　into　the　future。　Because　almost　immediately　very　small　effects…imperfections　in　the　surface　of　the　ball；　tiny　indentations　in　the　wood　of　the　table…start　to　make　a　difference。　And　it　doesn't　take　long　before　they　overpower　your　careful　calculations。　So　it　turns　out　that　this　simple　system　of　a　pool　ball　on　a　table　has　unpredictable　behavior。〃
　　　　〃　Okay。〃
　　　　〃And　Hammond's　project；〃　Malcolm　said；　〃is　another　apparently　simple　system…animals　within　a　zoo　environment…that　will　eventually　show　unpredictable　behavior。〃
　　　　〃You　know　this　because　of　。　。　。〃
　　　　〃Theory；〃　Malcolm　said。
　　　　〃But　hadn't　you　better　see　the　island；　to　see　what　he's　actually　done？〃
　　　　〃No。　That　is　quite　unnecessary。　The　details　don't　matter。　Theory　tells　me　that　the　island　will　quickly　proceed　to　behave　in　unpredictable　fashion。
　　　　〃And　you're　confident　of　your　theory。〃
　　　　〃Ob；　yes；〃　Malcolm　said。　〃Totally　confident。〃　He　sat　back　in　the　chair。　〃There　is　a　problem　with　that　island。　It　is　an　accident　waiting　to　happen。〃

Isla　Nublar

With　a　whine；　the　rotors　began　to　swing　in　circles　overhead；　casting　shadows　on　the　runway　of　San　José　airport。　Grant　listened　to　the　crackle　in　his　earphones　as　the　pilot　talked　to　the　tower。
　　　　They　had　picked　up　another　passenger　in　San　José；　a　man　named　Dennis　Nedry；　who　had　flown　In　to　meet　them。　He　was　fat　and　sloppy；　eating　a　candy　bar；　and　there　was　sticky　chocolate　on　his　fingers；　and　flecks　of　aluminum　foil　on　his　shirt。　Nedry　had　mumbled　something　about　doing　puters　on　the　island；　and　hadn't　offered　to　shake　hands。
　　　　Through　the　Plexi　bubble　Grant　watched　the　airport　concrete　drop　away　beneath　his　feet；　and　he　saw　the　shadow　of　the　helicopter　racing　along　as　they　went　west；　toward　the　mountains。
　　　　〃It's　about　a　forty…minute　trip；〃　Hammond　said；　from　one　of　the　rear　seats。
　　　　Grant　watched　the　low　hills　rise　up；　and　then　they　were　passing　through　intermittent　clouds；　breaking　out　into　sunshine。　The　mountains　were　rugged；　though　he　was　surprised　at　the　amount　of　deforestation；　acre　after　acre　of　denuded；　eroded　hills。　〃Costa　Rica；〃　Hammond　said；　〃has　better　population　control　than　other　countries　in　Central　America。　But；　even　so；　the　land　is　badly　deforested。　Most　of　this　is　within　the　last　ten　years。〃
　　　　They　came　down　out　of　the　clouds　on　the　other　side　of　the　mountains；　and　Grant　saw　the　beaches　of　the　west　coast。　They　flashed　over　a　small　coastal　village。
　　　　〃Bahía　Anasco；〃　the　pilot　said。　〃Fishing　village。〃　He　pointed　north。　〃Up　the　coast　there；　you　see　the　Cabo　Blanco　preserve。　They　have　beautiful　beaches。〃　The　pilot　headed　straight　out　over　the　ocean。　The　water　turned　green；　and　then　deep　aquamarine。　The　sun　shone　on　the　water。　It　was　about　ten　in　the　morning。
　　　　〃Just　a　few　minutes　now；〃　Hammond　said；　〃and　we　should　be　seeing　Isla　Nublar。〃
　　　　Isla　Nublar；　Hammond　explained；　was　not　a　true　island。　Rather；　it　was　a　seamount；　a　volcanic　upthrusting　of　rock　from　the　ocean　floor。　〃Its　volcanic　origins　can　be　seen　all　over　the　island；〃　Hammond　said。　〃There　are　steam　vents　in　many　places；　and　the　ground　is　often　hot　underfoot。　Because　of　this；　and　also　because　of　prevailing　currents；　Isla　Nublar　lies　in　a　foggy　area。　As　we　get　there　you　will　see…ah；　there　we　are。〃
　　　　The　helicopter　rushed　forward；　low　to　the　water。　Ahead　Grant　saw　an　island；　rugged　and　craggy；　rising　sharply　from　the　ocean。
　　　　〃Christ；　it　looks　like　Alcatraz；〃　Malcolm　said。
　　　　Its　forested　slopes　were　wreathed　in　fog；　giving　the　island　a　mysterious　appearance。
　　　　〃Much　larger；　of　course；〃　Hammond　said。　〃Eight　miles　long　and　three　miles　wide　at　the　widest　point；　in　total　some　twenty…two　square　Miles。　Making　it　the　largest　private　animal　preserve　in　North　America。〃
　　　　The　helicopter　began　to　climb；　and　headed　toward　the　north　end　of　the　island。　Grant　was　trying　to　see　through　the　dense　fog。
　　　　〃It's　not　usually　this　thick；〃　Hammond　said。　He　sounded　worried。
　　　　At　the　north　end　of　the　island；　the　hills　were　highest；　rising　more　than　two　thousand　feet　above　the　ocean。　The　tops　of　the　hills　were　in　fog；　but　Grant　saw　rugged　cliffs　and　crashing　ocean　below。　The　helicopter　climbed　above　the　hills；　〃Unfortunately；〃　Hammond　said；　〃we　have　to　land　on　the　island。　I　don't　like　to　do　it；　because　it　disturbs　the　animals。　And　it's　sometimes　a　bit　thrilling…〃
　　　　Hammond's　voice　cut　off　as　the　pilot　said；　〃Starting　our　descent　now。　Hang　on；　folks。〃　The　helicopter　started　down；　and　immediately　they　were　blanketed　in　fog。　Grant　heard　a　repetitive　electronic　beeping　through　his　earphones；　but　he　could　see　nothing　at　all；　then　he　began　dimly　to　discern　the　green　branches　of　pine　trees；　reaching　through　the　mist。　Some　of　the　branches　were　close。
　　　　〃How　the　hell　is　he　doing　this？〃　Malcolm　said；　but　nobody　answered。
　　　　The　pilot　swung　his　gaze　left；　then　right；　looking　at　the　pine　forest。　The　trees　were　still　close。　The　helicopter　descended　rapidly。
　　　　〃Jesus；〃　Malcolm　said。